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Rasmussen Poll in Mo. Senate race: McCaskill 48; Akin 38

The most recent published poll in the U.S. Senate race in Missouri shows a big change since Rep. Todd Akin “misspoke” about the chances of “legitimate rape” resulting in pregnancy. It comes from the robodialer Rasmussen Reports and shows incumbent Dem. Sen. Clair McCaskill ahead of Akin by 48-38.

The history of polling in the race suggests that Akin was well ahead before he expressed himself on rape/abortion. The last published poll before the remarks was by SurveyUSA and had Akin up by 11 points.

It’s dangerous to compare too much across polls using different methodology but the last Rasmussen poll in the race had Akin up by three. It would be an overstatement to say that the race for control of the U.S. Senate hangs in the balance, but that national picture suggests that that larger race will end up within a vote or two of control either way.

Saturday morning update: The St. Louis Post-Dispatch is out Saturday morning with poll result very similar to Rasmussen’s. In the Post-Dispatch poll (conducted by Mason Dixon polling, by phone, with a margin for error of +/- 4 percentage points, McCaskill lead by 50-41.

A friend in St. Louis also sends along this hilarious column tracing Akin’s route up the political ladder. 

Comments (9)

  1. Submitted by Ray Schoch on 08/24/2012 - 09:24 am.

    Slight penalty for bigotry

    Sigh. Michele Bachmann is an embarrassment to Minnesota, Todd Akin provides equal embarrassment for Missouri. That people vote for them anyway is a distressing sign of thoughtlessness on the part of sizable numbers of citizens. Bachmann has no policy or program beyond “Government is bad, send me to Washington so I can be part of it.” Akins’ philosophy seems to be “Women are pretty much like cattle.” Neither should be in “public” service.

    Akins’ sexual bigotry is just as ugly as the KKK, and while Claire McCaskill has never struck me as the reincarnation of Paul Wellstone, at least Akins’ expression of that bigotry appears to carry with it at least some small measure of negative consequence. Maybe McCaskill will be able to turn the toss-up into a win, but there are still quite a few weeks to go before election day.

    I agree that it’s probably an overstatement to say control of the Senate hangs in the balance, but it’s not a GROSS overstatement. When control of the Senate is within a vote or two of going either way, I’d say the balance is at least a little precarious. With the current Republican Party being transformed by anonymous billionaires and Christian fundamentalists into the American version of the Taliban, with a similar intellectual pedigree, I’d personally like to see the Senate remain in Democratic hands. That strikes me as the considerably lesser of two evils.

  2. Submitted by Paul Brandon on 08/24/2012 - 09:51 am.



  3. Submitted by Tom Christensen on 08/24/2012 - 12:46 pm.

    Why isn’t every woman in America outraged that predominantly rich white guys are trying to determine what they do with their bodies after rape. Rape is rape; there are not degrees of rape. Woman should not have to live with the aftermath of a rape for the rest of her life. To carry someone’s baby for 9 months and then have to raise it when rape is what brought that child to her is not right. What a woman does with her body should be a matter between her significant other, doctor, and clergy, not some rich white politicians who will not have to deal with it for the rest of his or her life. If you watch the news politicians can’t even manage their own lives much less someone else’s. The politicians are also doing a horrible job of managing the country they were elected to manage. It seems the only thing we need protection from is politicians.

  4. Submitted by Thomas Swift on 08/24/2012 - 12:09 pm.

    We interrupt for this breaking news…..

    Rasmussen also says:

    “Poll for Friday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 46% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns 45% of the vote.”

    We now return you to the Akin lynching, already in progress…

    • Submitted by Arito Moerair on 08/24/2012 - 12:23 pm.

      Claire McCaskill herself finds the Missouri poll extremely dubious. Rasmussen is a horrible, partisan pollster. Everyone knows it.

    • Submitted by Paul Brandon on 08/24/2012 - 12:51 pm.

      My point was

      that the Rasmussen polls tend to lean to the Right (see Nate Silver’s analysis in the NYT), so its poll showing Obama and Romney tied (1 point is well within the margin of error) is not surprising.
      The fact that despite its demonstrated bias it showed the previously favored Akin 10 points behind McCaskill IS significant.
      And Akin wasn’t lynched; he strung himself up by his tongue.

      • Submitted by Clayton Haapala on 08/24/2012 - 10:29 pm.

        Incite the base

        Rasmussen is just the poll to show Akin behind 10 points. Maybe it should have said 20 points., get them check-books opened wider.

    • Submitted by Neal Rovick on 08/24/2012 - 02:43 pm.

      “Lynching”?How about “losing


      How about “losing an election”?

      It’s clear that Akin will suffer nothing more than a retirement from public office with full benefits if he loses.

      More than likely he’ll have a fine living made off of his “bravery”..

      You display a profound ignorance with the use of words like that.

      • Submitted by Don Medal on 08/25/2012 - 09:10 am.


        well, lynching sounds SO much dramatic, don’t ya think?

        Anyone who describes this as lynching would have to be in agreement with Akin that his remarks were taken out of context by the liberal media, like Fox News and Rush and that there’s nothing to be alarmed about.

        Smart Republicans appear to be distancing themselves from Akin in droves, indeed the only support he seems to get from a fellow candidate is from his opponent.

        If he is lynched, it is by his own people. Except Mr. Swift. Apparently Mr. Swift feels Akin is good for the Republican brand.

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