According to a new poll of likely Democratic voters in several Midwest states considered swing states for the 2020 presidential election, Sen. Elizabeth Warren leads the Minnesota race for the Democratic (we say DFL) nomination for president among likely DFL voters by 10 points over Sen. Amy Klobuchar and the rest of the pack.
The poll was jointly conducted in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) and the Cook Political Report. Those four states were formerly considered part of the so-called “Blue Wall,” until 2016 when Donald Trump narrowly carried the latter three and came very close to winning Minnesota. The four states are obviously considered vital to the outcome of the 2020 race.
As always, I caution against too much importance attached to polls taken this far in advance of an election. But, for what it’s worth:
Here are the top line Minnesota numbers. Among Minnesota Democrats, first choice for the Democratic nomination:
Joe Biden: 14%
Bernie Sanders: 13%
Pete Buttigieg: 7%
Warren’s lead among Minnesota DFLers actually grew, and Biden dropped to third place when KFF combined first and second choices, as follows:
Kamala Harris: 8%
Looking ahead to the general election, 32 percent of Minnesotans polled said they would “definitely vote for the Democratic nominee” and about 24% say they would “definitely vote for President Trump,” leaving 41% who “remain uncertain” although many of those (10 percent on either side) said they would “probably” vote for the Democratic nominee or for Trump.
Impressively, only 3 percent of those who said they would definitely or probably vote for Trump said there was a chance they would flip to the Democratic nominee and only 1 percent of those who plan to vote for the Democratic nominee said there was a chance they would vote for Trump.
Just 21 percent said they were pure “undecideds,” unwilling to express any lean toward Trump or toward the Democratic nominee.
Among those who are pure undecideds, or only leaning one way or the other, the poll asked them their views on a few issues, and they came across as a fairly liberal group on some issues but not others. Specifically, of those undecideds and leaners:
76% favor a path to citizenship for those who entered the U.S. illegally.
68% favor a ban on future purchase of assault weapons.
64% said they favored the “Green New Deal.”
54% favored a ban on owning assault weapons at all, including mandatory buybacks.
But by 50-42 the undecideds opposed a ban on fracking.
And by 63-31 they opposed a “Medicare for All” plan that would eliminate private insurance.
And by 66-27 they opposed “no longer detaining people for crossing the U.S. border illegally.”
I won’t go into detail on the other three swing states covered by the detail (you can get the full report here) but, in general, based on approval ratings, Trump is in trouble across all four states. His disapprovers outnumbered his approvers by these margins:
Obviously this is just one poll. And Trump may benefit when the Democrats have to settle on a single alternative to him. But if these numbers are right (and I don’t claim to know that, and poll findings can be fleeting), Trump is in a heap of trouble in the current and former Blue Wall states.