The AARP sponsored polls of the presidential race in a huge number of potential swing states, with results out today.
AARP was focused on the senior vote, which it reported separately. But the general results, for likely voters of all ages, with a very large sample of 1,600 voters in most states and 1,200 in some, was passed along by FiveThirtyEight.com, and I’ll pass those numbers along to you with no comment other than: If all these states were to go to the current leader as shown in in these polls, the Biden/Harris ticket would win by a landslide in the Electoral College, although the size of the lead in many states was within the error margin.
In the states polled by Benenson/GS Strategy with a sample size of about 1,600 likely voters per state (except in Wisconsin, where it was 1,200) the, AARP, as reported by 538, found:
Florida: Biden 48, Trump 46.
Arizona: Biden 48, Trump 47.
Michigan: Biden 50, Trump 43.
Pennsylvania: Biden 49, Trump 46.
Wisconsin 50-45
North Carolina: Tied at 48.
In states polled by Fabrizio Ward/Hart Associates, as reported by 538, AARP found:
Iowa: Trump by 47-45.
Georgia: Biden by 47-46
Colorado: Biden by 50-40
Maine: Biden by 54-40;
Montana: Trump by 50-43.
You can find an overview of these numbers at FiveThirtyEight.com here.
If you take those margin-of-error states and split them, what would be the outcome?
Just eyeballing, I’d guess a narrow Biden win.
Generally that’s not how it works.
The key for Trump is FL. Basically, he can’t win without it; whereas Biden has paths to victory without FL. Trump is also playing defense in GA, IA, AZ & elsewhere. It’s a little bizarre they’re targetting MN, while they’re losing ground in states won in 2016.
To give you a better answer, this site lets you play with different scenarios:
https://www.270towin.com/
I read it as saying even without the too-close-to-call states, Biden has enough to win (today).
The site electoral vote dot com has a different methodology, but also shows Biden with enough EVs to win (today):
https://electoral-vote.com/
Even 538, which keeps referring to FL as having ‘bad’ numbers for Biden, scores it as a Biden state that he could lose & still win the election.
These are terrible numbers, given the total and abject failure of the incumbent and the fact that he has operated the most scandalous, corrupt and lawbreaking regime in modern history. Many of these polls are well within the range necessary for standard Repub vote suppression and electorate “managing” tactics to succeed. If Biden only beats Trumpolini by 3 million votes nationwide, the absurd electoral college will do the final work of wrecking the nation by returning an actual lunatic to the offal office. Biden needs to be winning by 4.5 million in order to overwhelm that archaic, anti-democratic contraption, and these numbers aren’t going to do it.
Incredibly, after the tsunami of lawbreaking, criminality, incompetence and impeachment, the unqualified fool and amoral conman looks to have held his spiteful 46% in most of the states he won in 2016, thus demonstrating that the degeneration of the white electorate was not some “fluke”, but the new normal. These numbers portend a second Trump admin, even though his ads and campaign have literally offered nothing in the way of policy, other than transparent lies and divisive vitriol. At that point, the sane can opt out of the failed and debased politics of America entirely, and attempt to figure out just how they and their families will survive in the failed “conservative” state. If a monster like Trump can’t be defeated in the American constitutional system, then the societal rot is complete and the main beams have given way.
The Wisconsin Supreme Court has decided they will stop the sending out ballots until the Green party candidate issue is settled.
The state was inoculated against normal functioning government by gerrymandering, voter suppression in Milwaukee and Scott Walker’s genius at killing off Democratic institutions.
Of course I’d still love to see the state vote the majority choice, but…..
jus sayin
That’s a pretty sizable “If”… What I find most distressing, especially after the release of the Woodward tapes, is that any of the races in any of the states is something other than a blowout for the Democrats. The President is a documented habitual liar responsible for thousands of unnecessary deaths, his neofascist supporters are working to terrorize whole segments of the population, the Senate Majority leader would rather see millions of low-income Americans try to survive the winter in cardboard boxes under bridges, or huddled in the woods, rather than pass a genuine relief bill, and here in Minnesota, Republican legislative leaders in both houses apparently think not enough people have died, so they keep pushing to “open up” local and state economies in ways that every reputable medical researcher insists are near-suicidal. The whole notion that the GOP is the party of “family values” and / or “fiscal conservatism” has been shown to be a gigantic fraud.
Woodward’s revelations would not be reflected in these polls.
Don Trump callings brave veterans suckers would be.
What keeps me up at night is the likelihood that no matter how convincingly Trump loses, he will contest the election on the grounds that it was ‘rigged’, and his supporters will start a civil war; possibly a shooting one.
I’m leery of being overconfident. First, Trump has an unassailable base of 40% (nationally, and probably in the swing states too). He could be caught on video taking cash from Putin and those 40% will call it fake news. I think the approval/disapproval rate after the Woodward revelation is fully reflected in polls will bear this out.
There will be massive voter suppression driven by Republican governors and legislatures this election. Urban polling places closed. Mail ballots conveniently lost or frivolously challenged. Biden will need a margin (3%?) to overcome this.
I expect so-called patriots doing their best – at polling sites – to discourage anyone who doesn’t look like a white Anglo-saxon from voting. Then you have Trump’s personal lawyer, Bill Barr, with his thumb on the scales of justice. The only question is whether the rank and file in the DoJ will be able to prevent the most egregious actions dictated by Trump cronies.
I do have some confidence that Chief Justice Roberts will try to prevent the Supreme Court from becoming totally irrelevant (and becoming a laughingstock of history) by trying to prevent the most overt politicization. (Of course, at one point I would have said that about Barr too.) But will it be enough?
I’d agree that Barr has clearly sold his soul and has no concern about what history will say.
Roberts’ identity is much more tied to an institution (the Supreme Court) and his actions have made it clear that he has limits on what abuses he will tolerate.
No wonder the conservatives have turned on Roberts, despite his reliable votes to move power from consumers & employees to corporate behemoths.
When it comes to concentrating power in the hands of the elites, Roberts doesn’t swing an inch, he’s immovable.