The Washington Post and ABC News joint polling operation has fresh numbers on the presidential race in Minnesota that show Joe Biden with a surprising 16-point lead over Donald Trump among likely voters.
I don’t assume it is “correct,” because it’s out of line with most other recent polls, but this is a serious polling operation. I have also been skeptical of some other recent polls that showed Biden leading by just a point of two. I suspect the reality is someplace between them (and many other polls have shown the Biden lead in the high single digits). But I pass it along because we’re Minnesotans and it pushes back a bit against the idea that Minnesota — which hasn’t gone red in a presidential election since 1972, the longest blue streak of any state — is seriously in play.
It’s true that Trump exceeded the late polling average in Minnesota in 2016 and came within 1.5 percentage points of carrying the state, and has been targeting it ever since as a potential 2020 pickup. And this Post-ABC News poll won’t end that talk unless it’s confirmed by a lot of other polls, which I don’t expect, since it’s the biggest Biden lead in Minnesota I’ve seen.
But it’s certainly a splash of cold water on Trump’s claims that he will carry the state.
The polling obsessives at FiveThirtyEight.com, on whom I rely heavily for polling wisdom, rate the Post/ABC polling operation as an A+, a rating it gives to few other pollsters. 538 also often adjusts poll results for what it perceives as potential inaccuracy, but it passed along the Post/ABC Minnesota result unchanged.
A couple of details from the poll:
The Post-ABC News sample said it trusted Biden more on every issue the poll asked about. Trump came closest on “the economy,” where Minnesotans trusted Biden more by just 49-46. Biden scored best (or, perhaps, one should say Trump scored worst) on ability to handle the COVID-19 pandemic, where more Minnesotans trusted Biden by 58-36, and “equal treatment of racial groups,” Biden: 59; Trump: 35.
The same batch of Post-ABC News polls included fresh results from neighboring Wisconsin, a state Trump carried in 2016. That poll showed Biden also ahead, but by a narrower 52-46 percent margin.
I fully support the Trump campaign’s continued efforts to flip MN, if it means they’re not focused on holding FL, PA, GA, OH, AZ, MI, WI, etc.
I don’t think Trump is holding on to MI, WI, or PA this time. As for AZ – Democrats picked off one of their US Senate seats two years ago, and we’re about to take the another one. My feeling is AZ is going to go blue in the presidential election this year.
Let’s call it the Don Junior effect: send him in and watch DJT drop.
Kind of like if Saddan Hussein sent in Uday and Qusay to campaign for him.
I live in the Park Rapids/Walker area (rural Hackensack) and up here one sees lots of trump signs and flags….not much Biden/Harris stuff. But with that said, we progressives in rural Mn. know and understand that education plays a big part in how people look at things and the future.
Education and awareness are the voids which rural Mn. faces in elections and in working to promote improvements for future generations; and that is why we count on the Metro to carry ‘the torch’ for Mn. in defeating this rural ignorance in this upcoming election.
I’m glad to hear there are still some progressives up there.
Thanks for fighting the fight in rural MN; every Dem vote in Greater MN is worth its weight in gold!
Signs don’t vote.
I don’t put out signs for three reasons:
1. Dem signs tend not to last more that 24-48 hours before they are vandalized.
2. I don’t want the right wing militias to know my views or take pot shots at my house.
3. A yard sign or bumper sticker has never changed my mind on anything. Has it ever worked on you? I don’t want to waste my money or my candidates money on something that doesn’t work.
Up here in the Brainerd area, I see a lot of Trump signs. But what I find interesting is that I see a lot of signs for down ballot candidates (Stauber, Gazelka, Poston) where there is no Trump sign. It’s not uncommon to see three signs for Republicans, but no Trump sign.
I’m from the same area and I’ve noticed that too.
I just drove down Wisc. 35 through Webster, Siren, Fredrick, Luck on down to Taylor’s falls. I saw the same thing, down ballot wingnuts with no Donald signs. There were some signs for him, but not what I remember from 2016.
Should be used to it by now, but it still astounds me to watch Trump blatantly lying; saying his own medical experts are wrong; and encouraging reckless behavior in a pandemic. And then it astounds me even more to drive some road and see all the Trump signs and, even worse, the Trump flags flapping in the wind. It indeed is a “cult.”
The Biden campaign is flooding the Twin Cities airwaves with TV ads. They wouldn’t be doing that if they believed they were up by 16 points in the polls. Here’s a piece of advice to the poll watchers: The first polls that will matter will be the ones following the first debate on September 29th.
And you really think that Trump has the chance of looking like anything other than a gibbering idiot in that debate?
Based on his “Town Hall” performance, I believe he has as much chance of gaining support after a debate as he does of winning either the Noble or Nobel Prize.
Absolutely.
Trump’s debate prep is using Sean Hannity as the moderator and a nodding Mike Pence as the opposition.
He has painted himself into such a corner with his Woodward comments, appearing as anything even resembling coherent is a likely as getting that vaccine shot in 4 weeks.
And all that said, the debates are mostly meaningless, 75% of people report they have listened to the Woodward tapes and some still proudly place a Trump sign on their front lawn. He could shoot someone on 5th Avenue and not lose any support (the last true statement made by the man).
Personally, I’d nominate him for the igNobel prize (https://www.improbable.com/ig-about/).
I’m seeing ads for both candidates.
The difference is that in the Biden ads he does most of the talking.
In the Trump ads Trump says nothing beyond “I approve this message ….”
Apparently they don’t even trust him to read an ad script.
The biggest danger for Biden is if reports of a 16 point lead convinces voters it’s in the bag & they can stay home. An apparently closer race will be far more motivating for Dem voters than a blowout.
Hmmm, I have seen hardly any Biden ads. I’ve seen Lincoln Project stuff but we watch different TV stations- I don’t have cable.
It’s over Johnny! This continuing drivel about Minnesota being “in play” is ridiculous. We are a flyover state for a good reason. The most hated man on earth will not win here, or anywhere. The Harris Administration begins right after the election whether all the votes are counted or not.
Harris Administration?
Funny, I heard she said that. Then I googled it, and it is clear she said it, and Biden a day later called it a Harris/Biden ticket – but in two pages of google results the only links that came up were conservative/republican websites. Clearly, corporate media did not report it, which as with Hillary, that shows a very tight ship between the Biden campaign and the MSM, propaganda by omission, as it were.
I think there are more important reasons to hold the MSM accountable than a predictably pointless right-wing meme.
Yeah. Two main reasons. Eternal apologia for Eternal warmongering and endless exhaustive propaganda for neoliberal hollowing out of the American economy, ie austerity for the many and every advantage for the few, ie epic increases in income inequality every year since Reagan.
Biden has said that he views himself as a transitional candidate, with the implication that Harris will run in 2024 even though Biden is the incumbent.
Um, the idea that there was a “tight ship” between Clinton and the MSM is not based in reality. Does “But her emails!” ring any bells? Or the non-stop coverage of the Comey Gambit? Plus, I’m not sure either Goebbels or Stalin would agree with your concept of “propaganda by omission”. Seems like an oxymoron.
As for this Harris (and Biden?) gaffe you two are discussing, it appears that it is well publicized for those segments of the population for whom it is an item of existential importance: Trumpites and their left-wing enablers.
https://www.counterpunch.org/2019/09/19/what-george-carlin-taught-us-about-media-propaganda-by-omission/
The most glaring current example of propaganda by omission is the Assange trial. There is AG Barr making a full court attack on the freedom of the press, and yet where do you hear about it in corporate media? See, the media doesn’t want us to discuss the implications of the Assange trial, in the maintenance of American Imperialism, so they simply ignore it. Propaganda by Omission.
William, you comment appears to be quite incoherent. You claim to have heard or seen Harris claim that she’s going to be the real POTUS, and Biden confirmed that, and you claim to have “confirmed” this with a google search, but then you tell us that the only google sources you could find were right wing web-pages. And your conclusion is that MSM is covering it up, because the right wing web pages you find must be the only credible sources?
All you’re really telling us is that you don’t know how to use the internet to investigate or verify a claim. But here’s the funny part: I’d wager that the majority of those who are going to elect Biden would actually be more enthusiastic about a Harris/Biden ticket in the first place. I don’t know who you think this malarkey is supposed to “alarm” but keep it up thank you we need all the votes we can get!
Harris is clearly being groomed to take over the presidency in the event that Biden is incapacitated, obviously. The question is, is Biden merely a placeholder with the intent of handing over the presidency? This is a legitimate guestion in a democracy.
As to my not knowing how to use the internet, I’m pretty sure no one in the Minnpost commentariat links more articles than I do, from all across the spectrum. I just didnt offer a conservative media link with the video of the gaffe because it is clear, doing so makes people here assume I am a Trump fan, and the mere fact that it is conservative might keep many here from even opening it.
As for the MSM and a tight arrangement between corporate media and the Biden campaign and the Clinton campaign before it, you of all people should be aware, the clinton/obama alumni running Biden’s campaign are “thick as thieves” with corporate media personalities.
“Harris is clearly being groomed to take over the presidency in the event that Biden is incapacitated, obviously. The question is, is Biden merely a placeholder with the intent of handing over the presidency? This is a legitimate guestion in a democracy.”
Yes William, the reason we have a vise president is to maintain continuity of government should the president be incapacitated. This has been the design for over 200 years. You think this is unique to Harris? You think this is alarming in some way? As for Democratic connections to corporatists and the wealthy… do you have anything to tell us that we don’t know? Did you really have to look this up on the internet?
I look everything up on the internet, when it becomes part of the discussion, to see and hear with my own eyes, so as not to have it interpreted for me. There I find, both sides excel at deliberate misinterpretation for political benefit.
As for Harris being groomed, and this being just the way of things, Biden would be the oldest president ever. He would be older than Reagan when he left office. It is a legitimate question to ask, is Biden just a placeholder? It is also true that long before Harris was chosen for VP, I saw her long on ambition and short on empathy. Which of course is politicians generally. But hey, it is worth asking, am I voting for Biden or Harris?
I am also not the kind of feminist who simply accepts that a woman as CEO of say, Raytheon, is progress.
It’s highly likely that votes are overwhelmingly locked in now. The cake is baked, the only question will be whether the election machinery is allowed by Repub officials (and judges) to produce the result that the nation’s voters sought–whatever that might be, given the failed constitution and anti-democratic electoral college.
Trump (and Dubya, twice!) were unanimously considered to have lost all the “debates”; Obama was seen to have lost one and beaten Romney in two. The conventional wisdom is thus that these absurd “debates” (which is about the last thing they are) have little effect on the electorate. In recent elections, the idea that there was some significant slice of the electorate that was “undecided” at the time of the debates was largely comical. After 4 years of Trumpolinian lawbreaking, failure and scandal, the idea of an “undecided” voter in Sept 2020 is preposterous. Hell, slight majorities favored his removal from office after the proof of his corruption in his senate trial was conclusively demonstrated.
Trump’s recent “town hall” was a “success” in that he wasn’t foaming at the mouth, and didn’t openly insult the voters as he does with the hapless media generally. It shows he can operate on some plane of propriety. Of course, everything out of his mouth was a colossally absurd lie, and the “fact-checkers” couldn’t possibly keep up the pace of his Gish Galloping nonsense. But the fact that Trump is a non-stop mendacity machine is meaningless to his followers; Trumpism isn’t about policy; it’s about white identity (the Volk) and the continuation of the comforting image of the white male(s) running the show. The fact that the “show” is a collapsing circus of “conservative” failure and accelerating environmental apocalypse is irrelevant.
As a photographer I’ve traveling out in the State working on photo essays during the COVID times. You get out there and you a lot of Trump campaign, some of it’s pretty funny- like the: “Trump 2020: No More Bullshit” signs. (seriously?)
I also saw a lot of Trump signs on a recent road trip to Boston and back. But I’m to suspect that this is just Trump marketing stuff as much as real campaign product. I think these displays may be more visible but not necessarily more representative. Trump literally thinks he can “create” reality, much like the Nazi’s did. For instance his latest claims that we’ll have a million vaccines doses by November… pure fantasy but he thinks if he says it it’s “real”.
I spent yesterday riding my bicycle in the Western exurbs. Corcoran, Rockford, Loretto, etc. I saw a lot of Trump signs out there. but on the other hand, I see more Biden / Harris signs in my 1.5 mile dog walk around Macalester / Groveland than I saw Trump signs in 45 miles of bike riding. My favorite sign: “Biden: 2020 Trump: 10 to 20”. I don’t think yard signs convince anyone to vote differently, but they may be indicative of enthusiasm.
The votes of “enthusiastic voters” each count as one vote, same as not so enthusiastic votes. 1 = 1.
But they’re more likely to happen.
Now I see the President has announced a “National Commission to Promote Patriotic Education.”
Or did he mean re-education? We could hold classes in special camps!
I’m not sure whether this is another sign of desperation, like his recently renewed interest in passing another covid stimulus package- or is it just another random thought?
If lefties were as prone to Q anon type nonsense as righties are, we’d be hearing about Don Trump planing to open re-education camps for Biden voters after the election.
Apparently you didn’t hear the education plan Donald announced today. “Trump announced that he would be establishing a “national commission to promote patriotic education” called the 1776 Commission.”
Lefties don’t need conspiracy theories because nothing we imagine can be as bad as reality.
Everything is a “random thought” with Trump, other than harassment of Latino immigrants/refugees. But it’s not a surprise that in the face of abject failure and total collapse on every front, the “conservative” movement looks to serve up more “culture wars” garbage. It’s all they have to offer.
One of the worst movements in American history, and given its absolutely central role in climate denialism during the critical decades, one of the worst in world history.
I do not trust the legitimacy of polling. A select group of 2,000 or 3,000 does not represent the overall voting population or eventual outcome. It is good fodder for diehard left-leaning anti-trump people to see a poll that says Joe Biden has a 16 point lead anywhere, but in reality, MN is a swing state and the race is closer than that. All that needs to happen is Trump to swing the Iron Range besides the usual GOP areas in MN for MN to go RED. I believe if Trump picks up MN, then more likely he will win a second term.
Sorry, but it sounds like you don’t understand the mathematical principles behind polling. And the Iron Range is now a very small part of the MN electorate; I’d be surprised if it didn’t already go for Trump by a significant margin in 2016. So to prove your theory, you’d need to explain the demographic of Hillary voters that are switching to Trump, where they are, and why they are doing it.
I do agree that if Trumpolini is able to win MN, then he’s likely going to do well enough to win the electoral college while losing the popular vote by millions, just as happened in 2016. “Conservative” presidential candidates can no longer obtain democratic legitimacy.
Polling is a fairly sophisticated technology; it’s been a long time since it depended strictly on random sampling.
And remember that 2/3 of the population of the state lives in the metropolitan area (as does the country as a whole).
The ‘real Americans’ are urban.
Well, for one thing the samples are much smaller than 2k or 3k and if you know that, you may want to study the methodology more before you decide how reliable the end results are.
I think it’s likely Biden’s lead is “real” but we won’t know how big it is until the votes are counted. Pollsters still have a lot of methodological problems to solve however so these numbers may not be that reliable.
Driving through Hayward Wisconsin the other day, I saw a huge sign in support of Trump on HWY63 in downtown Hayward…..It said;
If you think I`m racist because I am voting for Trump, does it mean you are a pedophile because you are voting for Biden?
What was funny, was someone put a sign above that sign that said, “your shoe sized IQ is showing again!”