A few commenters (and, yes, I do read them all) have encouraged me to write less about polls. I agree. Poll numbers have been called “crack cocaine for political junkies.”
Again, I agree.
But, being a political junkie, I can’t go cold turkey so soon after an election. And, as you probably know, there is still one more very important election immediately ahead: the double-runoff in Georgia, which could decide control of the U.S. Senate.
Yes, Democrats would need to win both to create a 50-50 Senate tie. But with an incoming vice president (assuming the Biden-Harris transition occurs in January as even I now expect, despite the incumbent administration still trying to hornswoggle its way out of leaving), 50-50 tie votes would be broken by Vice President Kamala Harris, who is believed to lean toward the Democrats.
I haven’t allowed myself to seriously believe that the two Georgia Democrats could sweep those seats, although it’s worth mentioning that (notwithstanding the Trumpian insistence to the contrary) Georgia did go blue in the presidential race by a just re-certified 12,000 vote margin.
So, with apologies in advance for writing about polls, I note that the political number crunchers at FiveThirtyEight yesterday analyzed all the polling and concluded that the Democrats both hold tiny, statistically insignificant leads in both runoffs. Did I mention that these leads are so tiny as to be statistically insignificant?
Again, I don’t vouch for these, and the FiveThirtyEighters would surely agree that the leads are so small that the races should be viewed as absolute toss-ups. But, according to FiveThirtyEight, the current state of the two races is:
Democrat Jon Ossoff leads incumbent Republican David Perdue (a gazillionaire who is getting a lot of negative attention for making several big stock trades with the possible benefit of insider information) by a teensy recent poll average of 48.7 to 47.9 percent.
In the other seat, Democratic candidate Rev. Raphael Warnock leads (unelected-but-appointed) Republican incumbent Kelly Loeffler by a slightly larger but still well-within-the-margin-for-error margin of 49.2 to 47.0 percent.
FiveThirtyEight’s Monday morning updates of both races, headlined “What The Polls Say About Georgia’s Senate Runoffs,” is viewable here.
The runoff is set for Jan. 5. If it’s as close as they say, don’t expect any of us will know much for certain that night. We should, or may, know the outcome on Jan. 6, or 7 or…
These elections are really about whether Mitch McConnell will be given a free hand to wreck the Republic for political advantage. I don’t think there is much doubt that he will be given that free hand. This is the way our system is failing.
Republicans said the same about Harry Reid. The identity of villains who seek to “wreck the Republic for political advantage” is a matter of political perspective. Each party seeks to thwart the other — particularly in this era of increasing polarization when true compromise (meeting in the middle) is a forgotten concept.
But Harry Reid never pulled any of the nonsense that McConnell has pulled. The treatment of Garland vs Coney Barrett? Its a dishonest comparison.
Sorry, but this sort of strained “Both Sides Do It” notion can only be described as willfully ignorant, especially when Gravedigger of Democracy McConnell just today voted (with 2 other Repubs) to block preparations for Biden’s upcoming inaugural, thus personally participating in Trumpolini’s ongoing coup attempt and undermining of democratic elections. But it’s par for the course for the Gravedigger.
Your equivalent counter-example for Reid, who couldn’t even block Bush’s War?
Hmmm. The national polls for the Presidential under-counted Republican votes. Among the possible reasons was differential reluctance to cooperate with pollsters, with Trumpists more reluctant and, thus, under-counted. If the same phenomenon applies here, the Dems actually are behind.
Maybe they learned.
The number of Congressional Republicans – House and Senate both – acknowledging the election of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris (depending upon your source, it ranges between 25 and 27) more than a month after the election, after 40 Trump campaign-related lawsuits have been dismissed or lost, some by Trump-appointed judges, and after the votes in Georgia have been counted three different times without changing the outcome, while the purported leader of the party, the President, has largely ignored a viral pandemic which has, as of this date, the potential to kill as many Americans as died in combat in World War II, suggests that the Republican Party has ceased to be a political organization useful to the nation in the context of governing. Effective government cannot be based – cannot, in fact, even exist – if the dominant ideology that determines policy consists of the denial of reality, a denial the current Republican Party has practiced in the context of the presidential election, the spread of COVID-19, the economy’s massive inequality, and the value of science in multiple other fields. Instead, the Republican Party has turned into a neofascist cult, worshiping at the feet of – God help us – Donald Trump. The current Republican candidates for the Senate in Georgia are fine examples of venal, badly-educated politicians whose knowledge of, and empathy for, the ordinary citizens they’re supposed to serve has been replaced by little else beyond self-interest and greed. Will they win? I have no idea, but the nation will not be better off if they do.
Well I live in GA now and it’s been…interesting to say the least. Politics rule here; REP politicians are treated like gods, no matter how egregious their behaviours. And yet despite hearing incessantly that GA is red and would forever remain so, Biden prevailed. And because the nation and the world are watching closely political sabotage on the local level has been quashed. Even I was surprised recently when both Kemp and Raffensburger broke rank with the other sycophant REPs and rightfully upheld GA laws, federal laws and the Constitution (albeit still proclaiming they are REPs and voted for Trump). It is critically important for Ossoff and Warnock to win in the upcoming runoff election. Early voting begins next week and close to a million mail in or drop off ballots have already been requested. While everyone expects both races to be close, it is entirely possible that the 2 DEMs can succeed. But the REP ads are 24/7 and shockingly crude and ugly. So if others around the country want McConnell’s hands tied and bills free to be voted on, after 12 years of sitting on untold numbers of them, please do contribute to Ossoff and Warnock’s campaigns (simple to do thru Act Blue). Ditto if you believe average Americans both need and deserve addl Covid relief. And especially if you want to see honesty, integrity and ethical behaviors return to DC. Thank you. PS And God Bless Stacy Abrams and a steadfast team of dedicated black women who have worked hard and long for years to help GA become more fair, equitable and blue. These changes will benefit many for years to come, as well as the country as their efforts expand across it.
“It is critically important for Ossoff and Warnock to win … .” I would argue the opposite. In the current political atmosphere, neither party should have unchecked power. Currently Democratic control of the House is a check on the Trump administration; a Republican Senate would provide the needed check on a Biden administration. This is a nation of a moderate majority with two major political parties controlled by left and right extremes. Neither should have free rein.
Yes indeed. That’s why Repubs were deeply concerned when their party had complete control of the federal government after the disastrous 2016 election. That was quite a “moderate majority!”
In summary: For Repubs, total control. For Dems, “needed checks” and no “free rein”. Sounds reasonable!
But all things are NOT equal.
Sometimes one party demonstrates that it has no capacity for positive action and thus does not deserve power.
A 50-50 senate would be more effective. Dems don’t vote as uniformly as Repubs & won’t be able to get 50 votes every time. Sen Manchin of WV is going to have a lot of leverage & be a moderating influence on what will pass.
McConnell in the other hand has shown he’s willing to completely upend senate norms. It’s entirely possible he’d not fill a SCOTUS vacancy for Biden at all. There’s also talk that he may disrupt cabinet appointments or refuse to allow votes on those he deems too liberal.
That’s the Senates job. Checks and balances. I hope they do make sure the cabinet appointees are mainstream
Unlike the ones they approved for Trump.
“Dems don’t vote as uniformly as Repubs ”
On any close vote, look up the names Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski. Now find two Democrats that vote with the Republicans nearly as much. We have plenty of time for your answer. (“Lockstep” is the word you are looking for.)
Over what time period? Check out the vote on the Gorsuch outrage, for example.
I doubt you could find much research on this subject, as each Congress is rather different. Further, Dems have lost most of their Red State senators as of 2018, that’s obviously where their “dissenters” were most often found. Whereas most Blue State Repubs (like Johnson and Toomey) are pretty much with the Gravedigger of Democracy through thick and thin.
And if Repub ladies Murkowski and Collins do (rarely) decline to vote with their Rightwing Boyz. that’s likely because they were “released” if their vote wasn’t needed for the particular outrage-du-jour, such as McConnell’s recent Barrett scandal (which Murkowski first bleated strong objections to, but then went along with the Gravedigger in the end, because her vote was needed).
Joe Manchin. Kristen Synema. Didn’t have to look anything up (but maybe should have checked the spelling).
Manchin has crossed over a few times in the last year to save his seat. Olympia Snowe was also good for crossing over a lot, her name and Susan Collins became a handcuff. The two GOP Senators are are some of the most powerful because they cross over so often, the Democrats, not so much.
First, “moderate” is an absolutely meaningless term. Most people in America will describe themselves as a “moderate” without any particular thought as to what moderation entails (other than “stuff I agree with today”).
Second, the Republicans in Congress today are not interested in compromise. They have no interest in allowing a Democratic President to govern. They are working off the idea that only Republicans have any legitimate claim to governance, so it is their obligation to obstruct Democrats whenever possible. If nothing happens, no appointees are confirmed (are they going to allow President Biden a cabinet?) or no legislation is passed, their work is done.
“They have no interest in allowing a Democratic President to govern.”
Most people don’t like Trump on this forum but exactly happened since the 2016 election? The Dems screamed to not allowing for Trump and the Repubs to govern to the point of revolting. All of the Russia, Russia, Russia that has been totally proven as false but still hung on Trump for almost 4 years including Mr Black.
Also, Mr. Schoch, the GOP is far from a ‘cult.’ If anything, you have to look at the current infighting that the Democratic party is looking at from it’s continued movement far to the left and the embracing of socialism. Socialism has been proven everywhere that it destroys countries. Look at Venezuela. It used to be one of the richest in the world until a group of people said they could take care of the country. They took over the press to where conservative ideas and freedom were censored. They weaponized every part of their government to follow them. They had militias that harmed people and destroyed property of those that did not follow the government. If anything sounds like a cult, it is the Dem party moving that direction.
“All of the Russia, Russia, Russia that has been totally proven as false . . . ”
When did that happen? Trump was never tried in a court of law. He was acquitted by members of his cult in the Senate. How does that prove that Trump didn’t obstruct justice in the special counsel or the Congressional investigation of the proven Russian attempts to influence the election? Or that Trump didn’t try to extort a special investigation of Joe and Hunter Biden by the Ukrainian government? Or that Trump actually didn’t collude with the Russians to get elected? He certainly tried. The investigations were shut down and prevented from being completed by Trump’s claim of blanket “executive privilege” for himself and almost anyone he could think of.
By the way, here’s how a ” cult of personality” is defined (wikipedia):
“when a country’s regime – or, more rarely, an individual – uses the techniques of mass media, propaganda, the big lie, spectacle, the arts, patriotism, and government-organized demonstrations and rallies to create an idealized, heroic, and worshipful image of a leader, often through unquestioning flattery and praise.”
Not to be confused with a “political faction” (wikipedia):
“A political faction is a group of individuals within a political party that share a common political purpose but differs in some respect to the rest of the entity. A faction or political party may include fragmented sub-factions, “parties within a party,” which may be referred to as power blocs, or voting blocs. Members of factions band together as a way of achieving these goals and advancing their agenda and position within an organization.”
It serves the interests of the Trump cult to smear the Progressives, a political faction of the Democratic Party, as “socialists” or crypto-Communists confusing totalitarianism with the use of Constitutional, democratic means within the Democratic Party and to wrest the present plutocratic control of the government from the wealthy and restore such control to the people.
Oh for goodness sake, now the Dems are a “cult” because….Venezuela? Who’s the “cult” leader? Pelosi? AOC? Lol. Is there ANY liberal theme/argument that “conservatives” don’t pick up and lamely attempt to mirror? Can’t they think up their own stuff?
As for Trump “not being allowed to govern”, several points. First, the Repubs’ clandestinely plotted in Jan 2009 to do everything they could to negate the election of Obama, a Dem prez who won a strong majority of the popular vote, with a Dem Congress that actually represented the majority of the nation’s citizens. And the Gravedigger of Democracy (and his lockstep caucus) embarked on an unprecedented campaign to block as much House-passed legislation as he could, as well as most judges Obama nominated, using the filibuster in an unprincipled manner. So that’s the most recent context of the observation by Mr. Holbrook.
Second, you seem not to recall that Trump lost the popular vote by several million, winning only the (anti-democratic) electoral college. So he had absolutely no mandate to govern, and a great many citizens weren’t willing to grant that he had one. That’s what it means to lose the popular vote. If Repub presidents want to have actual democratic legitimacy, then they need to win an actual majority, or even a plurality! But of course we did not challenge that Trump actually obtained the votes to win the electoral college, unlike the anti-American fascism that Repubs are pulling today.
In any event, the failed electorate in 2016 gave Trump majorities in both Houses of Congress, with which they proceeded to do very little, other than pass their ubiquitous budget-busting tax cuts, a feature of every Repub regime since 1980. Trump didn’t “govern” not because of Dem obstruction, but because he had no actual plans; Dems certainly didn’t block the Repub House from passing “conservative” legislation; Repubs elected to Do Nothing on their own. Hell, they couldn’t/didn’t even appropriate money for Trump’s signature Wall! They couldn’t come up with a replacement for Obamacare. They didn’t pass anti-immigration legislation. All they did was repeal existing legislation.
They (and Trump) didn’t “govern” because they can’t govern; they have no real interest in it!
Inconvenient facts–
We were Venezuela’s main petro customer.
Then we discovered shale oil and became petro self sufficient (although with long term environmental costs).
Venezuelan government actions were a minor factor — they would have lost our business one way or the other.
The idea that the Russian interference has been proven completely false is itself completely false.
If you can get past the fact that Venezuela’s leaders are ostensibly socialists, the real problem there is their similarity to Trump.
When did Democrats not allow Trump to govern? Are Democrats not allowed to opposed policies with which they disagree?
I don’t know of any Democrat or anyone outside the fringe of American politics who approves of Venezuela. If you want evidence of a political “cult,” check out the GOP’s 2020 platform.
So it appears your point is, that reality, must be checked with falsehoods, propaganda, conspiracy theory, anti -democratic norms, cult behavior and total fidelity to dictatorial family rule. Got it.
“Neither should have free rein.”
Otherwise known as ZERO progress on anything.
All the Trumpian GOP hand wringing on election troubles could have been much resolved with the House legislation that requires a 100% paper trail on all ballots. But no, that would just be enabling the evil Ds. And I’m sure there were legitimate issues to be resolved and that is what used to happen:
COMPROMISE
No more. Give one party a shot at implementing their ideas and if it does not work they will face the consequences in the next election.
GA is another big “Deep Red” state that is made up of about one half Dems…
Actually, Georgia is deep White.
Thank you for the prod to contribute again. I don’t hold out much hope, but you have given me a bit more. The Democrat’s motivation in November was to rid the country of the possibly the most corrupt and cruelest President we have ever had. It appears they succeeded despite Trump’s determination to become an honest to goodness Fascist. That success means, more than likely, less turnout for Warnock and Ossoff. The Republicans still have the larger motivation because you can’t let those socialists take my money and you can’t let those black people destroy our cities–or move next to me. To be bombarded by another month of nastiness is a fate nobody should have to endure.
But maybe the changing demographics and Stacy Abrams can rid us of Mitch also. The little video I’ve seen of the intelligence Warnock and Ossoff possess on the news versus the emptiness of Loeffler or the stony stupidity of Perdue makes one realize yet again how truly screwed up our country is.
Exactly.
The good citizens of Alabama in the last Senate election turned away a former US Atty. and civil right champion to bring in a football coach who could not name the 3 branches of government.
Given the track record of pollsters, these should be interpreted as more like 51-49 with the repubs in the lead.
These “run-offs” (really special elections) are a device that a number of Southern states came up with in the late Jim Crow era under the idea that it would combat “bloc voting” (by black voters) thus harming Black political power. Whether it actually helped protect white voting power in GA seems difficult to determine. Presumably this system discriminates against lower-income voters, for whom making sure they can participate in even one general election can be problematic, employment-wise.
It certainly seems a pain in the *ss for GA voters to have to go through two general elections rather than one, and it’s interesting that our “fiscally conservative” GA Repubs haven’t questioned the (obvious) extra cost of the system. My guess is they think it favors their candidates.
We know that without it, Warnock would have already won a seat. But so would insider-trading perp Perdue. Perhaps he can be indicted as a sitting senator….it certainly seems like he should have to explain his actions to a jury.
As an example of “conservative” hypocrisy, the remarkably, um, profitable stock trading of both these Repubs would have engendered rage and apoplexy beyond human endurance had anything like it been undertaken by a Dem. But anything is OK if you’re a Repub…or vote for them!
I can’t even look at 538 after that election.
Once more, polling predicts the popular vote, not the Electoral College.
It will be interesting to see how GA Biden voters go on Jan. 5.
While I will never really understand Trumpian appeal factors, they do not seem to be overflowing in Loeffler or Perdue. So it seems that the 2 Ds gain there over Biden’s total, but lose in the relentless Pelosi / Schumer socialist agenda scare tactics.
That Perdue did not even show up to a debate where he could have thrown all that stuff at Ossof is telling. One of the richest guys in the Senate spending a lot of time on the job working at getting richer thru stock trading does not create a lot of blue collar appeal.
Polling on “will you vote for DJT?” is always affected by the shame of having to say yes, reducing his poll numbers. Do Perdue and Loeffler suffer the same effect? Less so I would think…
It will all come down to how effective Republican voter suppression is.
They already benefit from gerrymandering, which is why it’s close.
I hope the message is sent on 1/5. Keep the senate Republican. The ONLY hope to prevent the far left from totally taking over. Joe is a nice guy but pretty spineless.
The United States hasn’t had a ‘far left’ since the 1930’s.
It’s funny how many mainstream ideas – things that are pretty much taken for granted now – were far left when they were originally proposed. Medicare was the first step towards godless communism, and anti-discrimination laws were going to bring about the collapse of America as we know it.
Anti-discrimination laws DID bring about the end of America as THEY knew it.
Which isn’t what they will tell you today. “Of course I favor equal rights, and if I had been around back then, I would have supported all that civil rights legislation. But now . . .”
In the assessment of the Republican base, the greatest threat to God-given liberty is posed by the hippies, the social workers and the people of color who have no wealth and control no levers of power, whose views are vigilantly kept from the mainstream discourse, and who have no interest in the stockpiling or bearing of arms, while the saviors of that liberty are the corrupt elite who work openly for an authoritarian system in which all the money and power is held by the few, and all the rest of us are set against each other. When you have a moment, I’d be fascinated to hear the reasoning from which this assessment emerges.
FYI:
AOC Is not calling all the shots.
Your feared “far left” majority is essentially the same group as 2009-2011 that brought us out of the 2008 economic meltdown and launched us on to 10 years of record prosperity.
Just because right wing fear mongers say something does not make it true: Just follow the facts..
But, but, but, I have been reliably informed that AOC and Omar and the rest of the Socialist Squad are actually in charge of the Congress! Both Houses! and in control of Biden, too! The TV ads said so, thousands of times. I kept count!
You mean to tell me this is not actually the case?
“10 years of record prosperity.”
Liberal Democrat belief in that (and Obama) is much of what brought Trump to power, is much of why Dems did not see the blue wave they imagined in 2020, and what is filling Biden’s administration with all the same sort of true believers. If Dems have the Senate too after Georgia, watch them lose the Senate and the House in 2022, if they persist in thinking Obama coddling Finance and Corporate and throwing the people to those wolves is “record prosperity” worthy of emulation, and not the exacerbating hyper-inequality and descending millions into economic despair that it was.
There are like 5 far left Democrats in congress and no one listens to them anyway.
And two of them are not registered Democrats.
Far left? Yeah, that way if say one of the Supreme Court Justices die from say a heart attack, we can wait what 4-8-12-20 years before they can be replaced by another republican president, yep corruption rules!
I’m in agreement. Knee jerk reaction is no, Dems are not winning these run-offs. History and statistics say Dems will do worse in these run-offs then in the general. Nonetheless, I’m open to surprises as it was surprising that PA, MI, and WI were so close but Dems still won AZ and GA. The electorate in GA has been changing very rapidly this past decade so it’s either a toss-up or Dems lose by a solid 5% or so.
Both sides do not do it, things are never equal, and nothing will ever be the same.
When we are in the middle of an encompassing catastrophe, few things matter less than who started it.
Liberals regularly say mean things about conservatives. That is totally the same as the Majority Leader of the Pennsylvania Senate saying that she only signed a letter asking Congress to overturn her state’s election results because she was afraid her house would be bombed if she didn’t.
Completely the same as Molly Ivins calling George W. Bush “Shrub.”
Thanks for recalling the moment that Presidents no longer were referred to with honor and dignity. There were certainly isolated instances in the past, but Molly regularly denigrated the President with the nickname and he, the President, was always polite to her. But with this significant step Presidents were freed to play musical instruments on SNL and appear on Late Night television which has certainly improved the country in the eyes of the world.
The first President to be referred to in less than completely reverent terms was George Washington. Despite what you were taught in school, there were anti-Washington clubs during his second term, and toasts were drunk to his death (the Jay Treaty was wicked unpopular in some quarters).
Apart from that, it’s all the fault of liberals. Rush Limbaugh said so, right?
I remain very cautiously optimistic that Ossoff and Warnock can pull this off. Senate runoff elections rarely favor Democrats, but I also wasn’t expecting Biden to carry Georgia. While it’s true there are moderate Republicans who voted for Biden (and then Republican the rest of the way down the ticket), the political landscape in southern states is changing. If Georgia was as reliably “red” as it used to be, Purdue and Loeffler would have scored decisive victories in November no matter how many Georgia Republicans voted for Biden. There would be no runoffs.
I think a big question mark will be President Trump’s impact. Will they grow a backbone and publicly acknowledge reality before January 5th? No, probably not because Trump would publicly turn on them just like he did Governor Kemp and Secretary Raffensperger. Like most other elected Republicans they are afraid of how much political influence Trump will continue to yield once he leaves the White House. So it could go either way for them – if they continue to follow Trump down the rabbit hole that may influence a very strong turnout for Democrats. Then of course there’s Mitch McConnell. Others on this thread have talked about the positivity of divided government, but divided government only works when you have people who actually want to work across the aisle. Mitch McConnell delights in obstruction – he’s publicly admitted it for years. If he actually wanted to even appear remotely bipartisan, there wouldn’t be 200+ bills sitting on his desk passed by the House. Even if he knows legislation passed by the House won’t pass the Senate, let it all come for a vote. Let people see how their Senators are voting and why.
Obviously the challenge for Democrats – and for folks on the ground like Stacey Abrams, Jon Ossoff, and Rev. Warnock – is maintaining a strong enthusiasm among voters. There’s also more than 20,000 young Georgians who will turn 18 by January 5th and can participate in that election.
I’ll also add that Senator Loeffler’s debate performance was abysmal. Not only did she awkwardly dance around the subject of Trump’s loss (surely she knew that was going to come up and could have prepped a more confident response), but she kept calling Rev. Warnock names. Personally I don’t have a problem with the statement “radical liberal,” but it’s pretty clear that Loeffler knows very little about her opponent’s political stances. Warnock is by no means radical, and I wouldn’t even call him a liberal. Perhaps politicians – all politicians – should start coming up with original thoughts rather than relying on catchphrases created by pundits.
Democrats win both seats with little trouble although the clinching votes may well come in after January 5, 2021. You heard it here on December 10th!
Not in Georgia. They do not have a provision to accept mail-in votes such as some other states do. Votes received after January 5 will not count.
Maybe not yet. But there is plenty of time for a new rule. And I doubt that the counting will be done by midnight although the races will probably be called by the major media outlets.