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In Minnesota, the pace of COVID-19 vaccination has begun to slow as the state has reached many of the populations most eager to get the vaccine.
The number of first doses of COVID-19 vaccines has been dropping since mid-April, according to data from the Minnesota Department of Health, even as only about 60 percent of people over age 16 have been vaccinated — 10 percentage points short of the state’s goal of 70 percent before the mask mandate lifts.
Minnesota is not alone in seeing vaccinations slow. A state-by-state report on vaccinations from the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) released last week found that first dose vaccination rates have dropped in the U.S. overall and for 44 out of 50 states, prompting the researchers to conclude that many states are beginning to reach their “tipping points” — the point when the rate of vaccination is not determined by limitations in supply, but instead based on how much demand there is.
Leveling off
A month ago, when vaccines were first available to all adults in Minnesota, it was hard to find an appointment to get one: demand for them completely eclipsed supply.
At the state’s peak first dose administration, in the second week of April, it hit a weekly average of more than 40,000 doses. Since, that number has been dropping, suggesting there are more vaccines readily available to Minnesotans than Minnesotans lining up for a vaccine.
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According to Kaiser’s research, 44 states and the District of Columbia had seen first vaccine administration rates per 100,000 residents drop in the week prior to the report’s release, indicating demand may be leveling off.
Even states with relatively high levels of vaccine coverage — mostly in the Northeast — are starting to see first dose administration slow down, suggesting they may be reaching their tipping points.
Twelve states had administered at least one dose of vaccine to more than 60 percent of their adult populations, but eight of the 12 had seen first dose administration rates decline in the last week. This “[suggests] that these states may be approaching or have reached demand saturation, albeit at relatively high vaccination coverage levels and rates of administration,” according to the report. Minnesota, at 60 percent coverage, had seen its average daily rate of first dose administration per 100,000 residents decline by 2 percent.
Some states with much lower coverage are seeing rates slow down, too. Twelve of 13 states where less than 50 percent of the adult population had received at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose have also seen first vaccination rates decline, including Alabama, Louisiana and Mississippi.
State to state differences
While states have been receiving COVID-19 vaccine on the size of their eligible population, their efficiency at administering vaccinations and the differences in their underlying populations mean states will hit their vaccine tipping points at different times, said Josh Michaud, an associate director for global health policy at KFF.
Ever since vaccines for COVID-19 were first talked about, researchers have been worried about vaccine hesitancy. Vaccine hesitancy comes in many forms: Some people fear getting a vaccine that’s so new, or worry that it was rushed without being tested (it was tested as rigorously as any vaccine). Others just don’t want to go first, and others still have fallen prey to misinformation or disinformation about the vaccine’s potential effects.
KFF has been tracking vaccine hesitancy over time, finding that the share of people who say they’ll get the vaccine as soon as possible or have already been vaccinated has increased over time, from 47 percent in January to nearly two-thirds in April.
But the increases in that more willing group are slowing. According to KFF researchers, that suggests “that increasing vaccination rates beyond that point will require converting other people who are less enthusiastic and that vaccination rates may only inch forward from this point on.”
That doesn’t mean that the U.S. will be stuck at 64 percent, but rather that vaccinating people beyond that might be slow going, requiring the convincing of people who are still in the “wait and see” group.
“Even within a state, it’s not going to be one story. In some places, in some populations, there may be more of an access issue,” Michaud said. “In our surveys we found there are some people who just don’t have the information about where to get vaccinated.”
In other places, ideology may play more of a role: polling has found that places that vote heavily Republican and have a higher percentage of evangelical Christians tend to have higher levels of vaccine refusal, Michaud said.
Because of the differences in states’ underlying populations, Michaud said it’s hard to point to lessons states that are vaccinating people quickly could teach the states that are lagging behind.
“Northeastern states have really led the way in terms of overall numbers of adults vaccinated and the pace of vaccinations continuing,” he said. “Also the underlying demand for vaccines is probably higher in those states compared to the southern states … they’re working with a different set of circumstances [and] have a little bit more of their work cut out for them.”
Minnesota is ahead of other Midwestern states in terms of vaccine coverage and pace, but Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz urged Minnesotans who are on the fence to get vaccinated now as he announced a rollback of COVID-19 restrictions in the state last week.
“Our path forward is pretty clear. Minnesota: Now, the next three weeks really, it’s on you to get the vaccines. It’s on you to talk to your neighbors, it’s on you to talk to your doctors. We have them available. They’re out there,” he said, urging Minnesotans to get to the state’s goal of having 70 percent of adults vaccinated and then push past it.
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https://www.yahoo.com/news/among-20-won-t-covid-100000872.html
If you’re among the 20% who won’t get a COVID-19 vaccine, this message is for you.
Let’s be honest. One political party is pro vaccination, the other is not. Democrats can preach to Republicans about getting vaccinated, but what would help would be for Republican leaders include Trump to recommend vaccination, along with personal physicians who until now haven’t been highly involved in the national vaccination campaign.
Republicans want to take credit for the fast development of vaccines that they refuse? They want normal life to return, but are not willing to make this small contribution to make it happen?
Step up people. Your parents and grandparents volunteered to fight a global threat, spend years dodging live ammunition,many not surviving, with virtually everyone at home doing their part. And you are afraid of a getting one or two shots with the biggest risk of feeling a little off for a day or two?
Funny, but it seems that personal responsibility has gone out of vogue from those who expect it from others. That is what is a big part of what is wrong with our country – that so many object to making the smallest personal sacrifice for the common good.
Our Governor got this wrong. If he had said we won’t “be opening” or get “back to normal” until 80%-90% Minnesotans have had their vaccinations there would be some leverage. Common sense over emotional declarations wins every time. Put the responsibility on them.
“Common sense over emotional declarations wins every time.”
It sounds to me like you haven’t been following this issue very closely.
I think that would have had the opposite effect. The vaccine refusers would have dug in even more.
I love this quote from Walz “Don’t like how I’ve handled COVID? Get vaccinated so you’re around next November to vote me out.”
https://twitter.com/dhmontgomery/status/1390355793841635331?s=19
My reluctant brother-in-law’s employer is offering $250 if he gets vaccinated. Hopefully more employers will do so.
I still sense a disconnect that some folks don’t want the shot because they think they are low risk instead of the reason it protects others.
Lots of us get the flu shot each fall not because we fear the flu but because it helps folks that might get quite ill from it. Let’s push that mentality in the messaging.
I really believe MN can get to 70% before school ends in mid June. And I hope our 6 year old and their classmates will get vaccinated before fall.
The people who are complaining the loudest about having to wear masks are the same ones who refuse to get vaccinated. They should realize that the sooner they get immunized, the sooner they can dispense with the mask. Maybe it is time to increase the incentive and institute vaccine passports. No passport, no entrance to bars, restaurants, sports or cultural events. It would seem masks are not necessary outdoors which should make the recalcitrant happy since that is where they will be left when unable to get into indoor events.
Yes, this is what a serious nation would do to “incentivize” the “hesitant” minority.
But in America, circa 2021, it would likely lead to a rash of gun mayhem by the heavily-armed dissenters.
“chickens are coming home to roost” for the trumper Anti’s. No deaths today, an anomaly, but ck the stats tomorrow. As of late, very few rest home deaths, but the ages of the deaths are in the trumper anti-vaci. ages… 30’s to 60’s . I say, less votes for trump
Numbers are dropping everywhere. I doubt the mask mandate in MN will last past June 1, even if we don’t meet the 70% threshold. The tide is turning. Stay tuned. You can play all the politics with this that you want. But at the end of the day none of that matters anymore. The Vaccines have truly saved the day.
Except that this is really never going to go away until enough people get vaccinated.
Someone should ask Walz if he’s talking about 70% of eligible adults, or if he’s talking about 70% of the actual population. 70% of eligible adults won’t get us to heard immunity.
Private companies simply need to require vaccination, there’s no need to offer bonus payments for it. Beyond that, we’ll just have to see what happens. When you allow and promote the kind of ignorance and stupidity that’s gripped our nation in the last 15-20 years you eventually pay a price. The problem with being stupid is you can’t be smart when you need to be, and that just might the wall we’re running into.
Hey, did hear about heard immunity? Ooops.
Insurance companies could stop covering COVID-19 related medical costs for people who refuse vaccination.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/some-health-insurers-ending-waivers-covid-treatment-fees-n1265422
Looks like another colossal national failure is looming, for all the happy talk about what things could look like if we were a nation of serious people. Instead, we had to watch the spectacle of widespread childish refusal to wear a simple mask, which routinely spread to rage and violence when confronted. This juvenile behavior (naturally) morphed into politically (and religiously) motivated refusal to get a safe and effective vaccine, which now threatens national security and the national economy. But the pagan Libs were owned!
The “conservative” movement has spent several decades manufacturing a type of citizen who is increasingly ungovernable, and we have now seen this insanity and irresponsibility come to fruition with the Trump Pandemic of 2020-21 and Trump Insurrection of Jan 6. What a country.
What if the Great Helmsman himself did a TV spot promoting vaccination (without the “or not” qualifier)? Suppose he went on the air and very calmly urged all Americans, whatever their political persuasion, to get vaccinated.
That’s all. No hysteria, no “I guess I was wrong,” no talk about masks or social distancing. Just a simple, direct message urging everyone to get a shot. I’ll bet the CDC would be more than happy to produce it and see that it gets broadcast, and I’m sure it would get plenty of air time.
What would happen to the vaccination rate then?