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The outcome of the U.S. House race in Minnesota’s Fifth Congressional District, between incumbent DFL Rep. Ilhan Omar and challenger Republican Lacy Johnson, wasn’t exactly in doubt on Election Day.
Minnesota’s Fifth is one of the most liberal districts in the U.S.: Minneapolis makes up about 60 percent of its population; the city’s closest suburbs make up the rest. And when polls closed and all the votes were counted, Omar had won with a 38 point margin. Joe Biden, who won Minnesota by a margin of 7 points, won CD5 by 62 points. A Republican hasn’t represented the district in any of its various incarnations since the 1960s.
But despite the fact that a Republican faces long odds at best in the district, Congressional District 5 was the Minnesota Congressional race that saw the most fundraising by candidates in the run-up to the November election: nearly $18 million. The bulk of that money was raised by Johnson, a North Minneapolis resident and newcomer to politics.
Record fundraising
According to Federal Elections Filings that cover the race from its start through November 23, Johnson raised $12.1 million, more than any other candidate for Congress in Minnesota, and significantly more than the $5.7 million Omar raised.
[image_credit]REUTERS/Erin Scott[/image_credit][image_caption]Rep. Ilhan Omar[/image_caption]
Both Johnson and Omar raised the bulk of their contributions from outside of the state, which is atypical for Congressional candidates in general but not atypical for high-profile ones. Ninety-three percent of Johnson’s contributions for which state-level donor information were available came from out-of-state, while 91 percent of Omar’s came from out-of-state.
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Both Johnson and Omar spent almost all of what they raised this cycle.
Johnson’s campaign reported more than $4 million spent on credit card fees, mostly handled through WinRed, a platform that helps Republican candidates raise money. (12/18 update: The Minnesota Reformer reported this week that many expenditures reported as credit card fees paid to WinRed were, in fact, money spent to fundraise that did not go to WinRed. The campaign has not updated its report). The filings say Johnson spent $2.9 million on direct mailings and $1.4 million on campaign consulting, according to data from the FEC and ProPublica.
Johnson ran roughly $961,000 in TV ads in the Twin Cities market from Sept. 1 through the end of the campaign, according to data compiled by the University of Minnesota’s Ad Watch project. Omar did not advertise on local TV networks in that time frame, according to the data.
FEC filings show Omar spent roughly $2.9 million on communications consulting, ads and other expenditures through E Street Group, a Washington, D.C. firm her husband co-owns. Her campaign cut ties with the firm after the election. She spent $195,000 on credit card fees.
Johnson outspent Omar on digital ads, per OpenSecrets, spending $1.5 million to Omar’s roughly $500,000. His ads on Facebook accused Omar of being involved in a “ballot harvesting” scandal that was debunked, claim liberal policies are destroying Black families and promote his policies on crime and poverty. Many of Omar’s Facebook ads focus on opposition to Trump or on get out the vote messaging.
Did it make a difference?
All told, this year’s Fifth District race was far more expensive than past bids for the seat.
In 2018, when Omar first ran, she raised roughly $1.1 million, according to OpenSecrets. Her opponent, Republican Jennifer Zielinski, raised $23,355.
How did Omar’s share of the vote compare this year to 2018?
In 2018, Omar won 78 percent of the vote to Zielinski’s 22 percent. This year, Omar lost a sizable chunk of that vote share: she won 64 percent of the vote, while Johnson won 26 percent — slightly better than Zielinski did in 2018. But one factor that made this year different from 2018 was the presence of a third-party candidate: Legal Marijuana Now candidate Michael Moore won 10 percent of the vote.
Making a difference in the vote share may not have been the point of all the money Republicans raised and spent in the race, said Brendan Quinn, outreach and social media manager for OpenSecrets.
“This is something that we’ve seen happen a number of times, when there is an incumbent like Ilhan Omar who is so prominent, and in some circles, controversial,” he said. “The people who are running against these candidates often massively outraise them despite the fact that there is little to no chance of a Republican winning.”
Such was the case in California District 43, which covers part of Los Angeles, and where Republican Joe Collins spent $9.8 million to Democratic incumbent Maxine Waters’ $1.9 million. Waters won 74 percent of the vote to Collins’ 26 percent.
It was also the case in Maryland’s District 7, long held by Rep. Elijah Cummings, who died last year. Republican Kimberly Klacik spent $7.3 million, significantly more than the $702,000 spent by Kweisi Mfume, who won a special election to replace Cummings and was running to retain his seat in November and raised $1 million in the run-up to the race.
When it comes to outside money groups, spending heavily in districts with high profile candidates can help raise money for other races.
“Some of the groups running ads against them can use that to raise money for their own purposes — they can raise money in actually competitive districts,” Quinn said.
For candidates, all the exposure from raising and spending money — even in a race they’re unlikely to win — can help raise their own profiles.
“Especially this year with online giving from small donors at an all-time high, it’s really easy to say to people in Arizona or North Dakota or Oregon: ‘Hey, I’m running against Ilhan,’” and raise money, Quinn said.
While this tactic was employed by Republicans and Republican-affiliated groups in House races this year, it isn’t limited to Republicans.
Democrats and groups aligned with them used the tactic in races like Kentucky’s Senate race, where Democrats raised and spent a huge amount of money in pursuit of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s seat.
McConnell won the race with 58 percent of the vote, compared to Democratic challenger Amy McGrath’s 38 percent.
“Amy McGrath was not going to win,” Quinn said.
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Who are these people that have so much money to donate to lost causes?
Combine that with all the money that Antone Melton-Meaux raised and spent running against Rep. Omar in the primary (6-7 times as much?) in a race that wasn’t that close either… and that is one very expensive race for a “safe seat”.
So wait, did the money sent to Johnson go to other Republican candidates?
Both campaign against Omar were essentially scams. No hope candidates were found and vast sums of money were raised on their behalf from gullible and vulnerable individuals. The money raised than was skimmed by “consultant” and other hangers on who made a huge profit. It’s not that different from the con game played Zero Mostel and Gene Wilder in “The Producers”, except the contributors instead of getting something worth nothing, got nothing at all.
Off-topic, but nonetheless, “The Producers” is one of my short-list, all-time favorite films.
Yet what exactly was Omar’s money spend on, especially in the general election? There was also more of a turn out so those votes going to the marijuana party would not necessarily have gone to her. And in the general election, neither had that many TV ads.
Clearly, most of the marijuana third party vote would have gone to Omar, since Republicans are so massively and cruelly supportive of the insane persecution of millions of good citizens who prefer near harmless marijuana over addictive, very harmful alcohol.
“Johnson spent more than $4 million on credit card fees, mostly handled through WinRed, a platform that helps Republican candidates raise money. That’s likely a function of the volume of small-dollar donations that were processed through that platform.”
Is this true? 33% of what he took in went to credit card companies?
Until politicians do something meaningful about epic graft masquerading as business as usual, I will never give even one dollar to any politician.
That $4 million got my attention, too. I rarely donate to candidates or causes, at least outright, for that reason. Another scam at election time is television advertising. It might be useful to find out what the market leader(s) are charging for a 30-second ad spot a couple months AFTER the election compared to, say, a month BEFORE the election. In a capitalist society, in a cutthroat environment like broadcast TV, greed is everywhere.
It actually doesn’t matter what the rate cards are for the broadcast television stations and whether or not there’s greed in advertising rates because, by federal law, local broadcast stations are required to charge political candidates only the lowest available unit rate for that time spot. So while it is true broadcasters are filling up their ad inventory they are only getting the lowest possible rate for the ads so they don’t quite make as much as you might think on those spots.
It can’t be. I take small credit card payments from my clients and its like 2.5 percent or something. This money is being funneled elsewhere.
In this climate, we have to appreciate the fact that the Cities are home to fewer Trump Cultists than the rest of the state.
$4 million in credit card fees for Johnson versus less than $200,000 for Johnson. That works out to 33% of the total raised for Johnson and about 4% for Omar. She might be a lot of things, but not a big spender.
This story raises a lot of red flags about Johnson’s campaign. Omar has been attacked for using her husband’s political consulting business – which is real and apparently helped him to win.
Republicans seem to have a funny idea about other people’s money, perhaps following Trump’s example. This whole charade about raising small dollar amounts to contest the election result, when the fine print says the small dollar amounts will not go to the purpose.
The credit card company that received this windfall perhaps should be asked to explain if this was not really a money laundering operation, with the business being a pass through. Maybe not, but certainly not a cost effective way of running a campaign.
Rep. Omar is a politician who attracts a great deal of attention, a polarizing figure. Because she is a very convenient target for a lot of right wingers, scam artists can use her to raise money. They will do all they can to present this isolated political figure as the face of the Democratic Party. That’s why her opponent was able to raise such huge amounts of money.
What amazed me in the last election was that Minnesota had a senate race that was not completely uncompetitive, yet it seemed that Republican challenger barely mounted a campaign. I saw few commercials until the end of the campaign. The commercial I did see was shoddily constructed, and seemed designed to alienate urban voters whose support at least to some degree, is needed to win state wide elections. With a vulnerable Democratic incumbent, why wasn’t there a serious effort to defeat her? Why did so much money, albeit with hardly any real effort, go into the impossible for Republicans to win fifth district congressional race instead?
Republican donations are driven by hate. They don’t hate Tina Smith like they hate Ilhan Omar.
One has to look at what the Repub primary voters thought was a sensible candidate to deploy against Smith: a far rightwing “conservative” entertainment figure, one who apparently thought that showing off his (and wifey’s) firing range talents[!] was a sure-fire winner. If a Repub senate hopeful actually wanted to win MN, that’s just stupid.
And the plutocrat Money Boyz, who really decide where Repub campaign funds are going, knew that they weren’t wasting time and money on a non-serious clown candidate. So Repubs shot themselves in the foot by running Handgun Lewis.
Funny thing about Jason Lewis: When he was in Congress, I recall that he had a somewhat skeptical attitude towards law enforcement. After the murder of George Floyd, he made a well-documented visit to the scene and talked with residents.
Of course, that was before the ravening hordes of lawless, um, urbanites became the Republican campaign strategy for 2020.
Forgive me if someone already mentioned this but you can’t disregard the effect 0f Antone Melton-Meaux’s toxic attack on Omar during the primary. I’m not sure any other candidate faced such an attack from ranks of their own party, and I know that Ellison never did. Antone’s attacks were almost as vicious as Lacy’s and it’s safe to assume that republicans found a primary challenge like that encouraging. You don’t have to be a political genius to reckon that a candidate emerging from a bruising primary battle like that might be more vulnerable. Add to that the Republican tendency to overestimate their own popularity and see the world through a lens obscured by alternative facts, and you know why they would dump so much money on Lacy in hopes of actually defeating Omar.
The spectacle of Democrats eating their own under the guise of promoting “unity” certainly encouraged republicans for Lacy while depressing turnout for Omar. I haven’t done any analysis but I would bet a couple bucks that if you look at this result you will find that primary attacks on Omar drove her vote down rather than driving Lacy’s numbers up. Democrats voted for Biden, but not Lacy, hence the discrepancy with the Omar vote. Some of Omar’s fellow democrats are determined to damage her, and clearly to some degree they succeeded.
Of course one has to note that Antone’s attacks on Omar were no more reality based than Lacy’s. The spectacle of a Democrat promising to reach out and find “unity” with Fascists while leveling toxic accusations at his fellow Democrat simply reveals a natural affiliation that liberals should denounce rather than embrace. This is an affiliation after all that has brought our democracy to the brink of disaster.
“The spectacle of a Democrat promising to reach out and find “unity” with Fascists while leveling toxic accusations at his fellow Democrat simply reveals a natural affiliation that liberals should denounce rather than embrace.”
The spectacle of a wannabe freshman member of the House of Representatives making a promise like that always gives me a chuckle.
Omar isn’t a “wannabe”… she holds the same election cert that everyone else has… she’s a siting House member. But, yeah, she’s only politician ever in the history of politicians to make campaign promises right? So I guess you have a point.
I was referring to Antone Melton-Meaux and his grandiose promises to reach across the aisle.
They told me no one could see my point if I combed my hair right. Back to the drawing board.
Ha! Sorry RB I’m a little denser than usual today I guess. I might dust off my sense of humor while I’m at it.
Actually, it seems likely that Mr. Melton-Meaux’s campaign money may have come from the same source’s as Mr. Johnson’s. And given the groundwork laid by Mr. Melton-Meaux, it’s possible that his campaign was part of a larger strategy to capitalize on Ms. Omar for raising money for Republican skimmers. That 33% in credit card fees for a lost cause is pretty impressive. If Etsy or Ebay charged that much to provide a service, they would be called to the mat by the public, and eventually, Congress. Notably, merchants (presumably, this would apply to whoever is handling the donations) cannot charge more than 4% of the value of the transactions, or the actual amount of the cost of processing the credit card transactions, whichever is LOWER. Convenience charges also have limits. I highly doubt that the 33% is due to the number of small transactions. It’s either a skim, and incorrectly (illegally?) reported, or the fees are due to late payment fees and interest (although, most interest caps out at 29.99%). If I were a donor, I’d be PO’d that 1/3 of my donation went to credit card fees, and there might be a question over whether the candidate was required to disclose such a cost.
Thank you Rachel, I had neglected to mention THAT aspect of Melton-Meaux’s candidacy. I think those attacks combined certainly did some damage. It’ll be interesting to see what happens in the next cycle. My guess would be in absence of an attack by her own party she may regain some votes.
The idea that Melton Meaux was some kind of right wing trojan horse is pure fantasy.
The Strib is generally not known as the paper and ink equivalent of FOX news. Their words in their endorsement of Melton Meaux over Omar:
“There are many ways to fight for change, few of them easy when tackling entrenched systems and interests. Omar says she will “fight hard for big ideas.” But the point of the fight, after all, is the change. And that often requires the ability to forge alliances and persuade.
As a mediator, Melton-Meaux said he has learned how to talk to different sides “in a language that’s familiar to them,” offering “a value proposition they can buy into.” His experience on Capitol Hill, as a fellow with the Congressional Black Caucus, has gained him a valuable window into how skilled leaders work against the odds to bring change.”
Omar won, be happy, no need to beat down the reputations of those defeated with unsubstantiated claims.
I don’t see anything in this quote about Melton-Meaux’s campaign finances.
By the way, the problem many of us saw with Antone was his promise to seek “mediation” with Fascists while attacking members of his own party. By definition anyone who tries to win an election by promoting division and hostility is not the great “mediator” in the room.
So, if one decides that they would like to issue a primary challenge to an incumbent in the hope of replacing the incumbent on the general election ballot AND any negative comments on the incumbent’s performance while in office is off limits?
That is pure nonsense and has never happened in any primary challenge: The challenge occurs because of dissatisfaction with the incumbent’s performance.
And, I too am little impressed with the ethics and performance of the GOP, but just calling them all fascists as the starting point for a conversation is probably not an effective strategy just as the right calling anyone to the left of Joe Manchin a socialist, Commie pinko will not be very productive.
We are a 51 / 47 nation. Let’s get to 60 / 40 and see what happens.