This article is republished from The Conversation.
Ore Koren is a scholar of civil conflict and political violence. Before the November 2020 election, Koren, an assistant professor of political science at Indiana University, wrote a story for The Conversation about the likelihood of election-related violence in the U.S. So we went back to him on Wednesday, while what some are calling an insurrection unfolded at the U.S. Capitol, to ask him for some perspective on the event. This transcript has been edited for length and clarity.
Q: You’re a scholar of political violence. What were you thinking as you watched what’s happened at the U.S. Capitol?
Ore Koren: First of all, I felt pretty stunned. I think that’s a natural response to this. This is a new situation; it shows the power of misinformation and stuff that we’re not really good at dealing with.
My research focuses on organized political violence, which often happens in places where the state does not have much power to prevent violence, where the economy is underdeveloped, where democratic institutions are weak, and where there is a history of organized violence. And usually when we see events at this magnitude, they are accompanied by many casualties, which thankfully was not the case today.
What happened at the Capitol, from what I can tell, was a messy riot where people lashed out at the heart of American democracy, but it remains unclear how organized an effort this was.
Still, it is kind of shocking. We have the biggest economy in the world. Based on what we see in the research, weak economic performance is a strong predictor of organized political violence. The people marching on the Capitol have much more to lose than to gain from this, and to me that’s puzzling.
[image_caption]Ore Koren[/image_caption]
What separates the U.S. and other advanced and militarily capable democracies from other countries where deadly election violence happens is the ability to wage an effective state response and very quickly implement the rule of law, cracking down on both the perpetrators and any groups they might be affiliated with.
One example of a very effective state response was in Michigan, where the militias plotting to kidnap the state’s governor were quickly apprehended by federal authorities.
Q: How does this compare with political violence in countries you’ve studied?
Koren: Compared to other countries, I’m hoping it won’t get to that threshold of being more extreme. A lot of violence actually happens when a party refuses to give away power or a party blames the other for cheating. Well, that’s kind of what we saw happening here, right, one party was blaming the other for cheating. Only here, we had lots of evidence to the contrary, and we had legal and institutional ways of verifying any cheating or lack thereof.
In the U.S., most of the election challenges happened through formal legal channels. The main problem in places where we see violence happen is because they don’t have these kinds of institutions to deal with this, courts, all those things that our legal system can handle. But in countries where such institutions are weak, the state can’t handle that, and can’t address election challenges through a peaceful process. In this case, we see many political leaders, and not only angry citizens, saying those political institutions are not valid.
Also, in other countries, those engaging in such violence are often pro-government militias, but these are not pro-government militias we’re seeing here; as we saw today, they are actively opposing the police.
Q: But what you’ve got in the U.S. is a group of people who actually don’t believe that those institutions handled this, that it’s all corrupt, that it’s all fake and not real and cheating and plots happened. And we’ve had a president saying that.
Koren: Well, you have the president saying he was cheated, but going through the legal channels. The president didn’t just go and say, “OK, let’s go charge the Capitol,” although Wednesday morning’s speech could definitely be interpreted as instigating something like this. Until now, his rhetoric could be considered more about mobilizing support, and trying to create enough reasonable doubt that could then be used to pressure the results through formal channels.
But we do have a very unpredictable incumbent pushing the legal envelope during the worst pandemic in a century. What we’re seeing today, I think, has a lot more to do with his unpredictability and things we can’t account for in models we use to study political violence events. It’s been more than two months since the election and we didn’t see any serious violence until now, but as the legal options closed, the situation became more problematic. We don’t often see election-related violence months after an election.
Q: What do you think this means for the stability of the U.S. government or U.S. elections?
Koren: I’m not an election expert, but it’s a bad precedent. We don’t have a recent history of election violence and, now we can say we do have it, and that’s not a good thing.
What hugely contributed to all of this is misinformation. People mobilized based on a conspiracy with no evidence. I think this is a major problem that has to be addressed – I don’t know how. But it is really crucial to address the underlying problem – that people believe in what they feel is real, not what is real.
Once you engage in political violence, it becomes easier to do it again. But if there’s an effective state response to these events, then it can help strengthen those institutions.
So, I think a lot of people will be saying, look, this is all going to have long-term negative implications. But there’s also a possibility that this can actually help in the long run by showing the grave consequences of manipulating democratic institutions for political gain. Again, it depends on how the state and politicians and security and everybody responds to this. But having a history of political violence is a pretty strong predictor of future violence.
I think it’s really important for federal authorities to show their ability to tackle this. When it comes down to it, the government must show that it can protect American democracy, through force if necessary.
Naomi Schalit is senior editor, politics + society at The Conversation.
There’s no doubt that the Insurrection of Jan 6, 2021 was fueled by disinformation spread via the horrendous development of social media and fake rightwing “news” websites. But the critical aspect here was that the disinformation was relentlessly spread 24/7 by the anti-president and committed American fascist, Donald Trump. And his Big Lie was enabled by almost all elected Repubs up until yesterday, when a few of them saw what they had enabled–the first non-peaceful transfer of power in American history. After Trump, the country will never be the same again.
A serious nation would have a cabinet that would remove him-today-under the 25th Amendment. A serious nation would have an AG that would arrest him-today-for inciting an insurrection and attempting to falsify an election, although now we’ve probably forgotten his weekend criminal call to GA officials! A serious Congress and nation would impeach and remove him from power today. A serious nation would be hunting down all the insurrectionists for arrest and trial.
We know that none of this will happen, because we are not a serious nation. And most certainly not serious about deterring more political violence by far right white extremists, who made clear what they were going to do, awaiting only the Dear Leader’s order, and who were then met with largely passive resistance by mysteriously unprepared law enforcement. As the professor in the article says, we can now expect more political violence after yesterday’s rightwing insurrection.
I hate disagree with you because I once thought like you. After listening to MPR today all these serious things you suggest would be a tall order. Law often requires a supermajority in order to grease the wheels. Good luck with that!….And yes Trump’s actions and speeches are abhorrent but apparently 40% or so of the public outside the media bubble like the soon to be ex president. I do not have the answers to these problems but I have to tell you I did not like Biden’s speech today. He took sides and perceptually is on the side of black protest with little mention of the destruction. Some sort of Unity party with Romney, Gabbard, Yang?, Rubio, Sasse. Phillips and Stauber needs to strengthen itself. As they already have a caucus. How they could frame the issues in our fragmented media landscape would be a challenge. Step outside the channels you are in and send a letter to Stauber , Thune and other legislators who put party before country.
The thing is, in a serious nation, it wouldn’t be a tall order. It would be the duty of our elected representatives to protect our nation and her people from further damage.
Biden wasn’t taking sides he was pointing out the, well documented, difference in the way law enforcement responded to BLM and this mostly white “protest.” These officers were taking selfies inside the Capital building with these folks for pete’s sake. After committing their crimes, one of which was beating a Capital Police Office to DEATH, these folks were allowed to simply walk out the doors they had bashed in. Compare that to the video of police shooting residents sitting on their own front porch in South Minneapolis with paint balls. There is no comparison.
“He took sides and perceptually is on the side of black protest with little mention of the destruction.”
That does not resemble anything the President-elect said. He compared the law enforcement response to the most recent insurrection with the response to BLM protests. Noting that the response to black rioters storming the Capitol would have resulted in far more bloodshed is a fairly obvious observation. If that amounts to taking the side of those bad, bad coloreds, so be it.
This is one of the times when it is important to take sides. Balance is not indicated, and faulting Mr. Biden for condemning the insurrection while not, at the same time, condemning last summer’s riots is a distraction and not a good one.
That is false. An outright lie. Biden has always been very clear that he absolutely does not condone the violence and destruction. He rightfully supported black protest after the cops murdered a black man in the street, but he never showed any tolerance whatsoever for the looting and destruction – much of which was actually done by right-wingers anyway.
January 6, 2021 was the United States of America’s November, 1923. The American fascists demonstrated their willingness to overthrow the shambles of American democracy, the Washington D.C. police demonstrated their inability to oppose fascism and white power chaos, even the federal Capitol police were all but helpless in the face of violence to the nation’s government. Trump and his brown-shirts will be back and, next time, the country better be ready to fight or history will repeat itself.
Trump’s incompetence and negligence has managed to kill almost a half-million US citizens. There will be economic consequences to 4 years of rampant corruption, uncontrolled spending, and the decimation of the nation’s national security system. Every Republican administration in my lifetime has left the country broke, disorganized, unemployed, and demoralized. Trump has doubled-down on all of those deficits and has called out the worst-of-the-worst (the “deplorables”) in US society to overthrow the government, to violently act on their white power paranoia, and has decimated US citizen confidence in the election system and democracy. It is not hard to see where history would indicate that this is taking us.
If Vladimir Putin were an investment banker, his return-on-investment with Trump and the Republican Party would be grounds for an SEC investigation. Anyone making that kind of bank has to be cheating. He makes Bernie Madoff look like a piker.
Yes, the parallels with fascism are ever more striking.
Contact your elected officials everyone! Severe consequences must be meted out. The 25th Amendment can be accomplished within hours. A 2nd impeachment only requires a vote. If every congressional types votes tge same as last night: it will pass w a 2/s majority. Donald J Trump is a psychopath and malignant narcissistic who in Oct 2016 stood on stage w Bannon b4 a Hillary debate and they stated that their shared objective was to “obliterate the federal government”. He has always broadcasted his sick, cruel, destructive intents!!!! So absolutely NO ONE sb surprised by yesterday’s events. No more excuses, no more poo pooing, no more looking away. Protect yourselves, your country and our collective future: finally cut off the head of this poisonous, traitorous, seditious snake once and for all. Free yourselves of this fascist tyranny. America is a republic with democratic processes and must remain so.
I have contacted my Representative, Tom Emmer, to this effect. I suspect it will have been a waste of time.
One thing will make this less likely. Using our police and courts to bring the domestic terrorists who disgraced our country to justice. Long prison sentences, heavy fines to their funders, permanent loss of their right to bear arms and vote. Has Republicans impeached Trump and ran a different candidate, none of this would have happened. If Trump had a shred of decency, he would resign and vacate the White House.
Instead, Trumpolini almost certainly reveled in the insurrection he incited, and basked in the glory of the pathetic attempts of those fools (like Repub leader Kevin McCarthy) grovelling before him, begging him to “call them off” (as if anyone had the power to do that). He looks on the rightwing siege as the absolute high point of his “presidency”. What is incredible is that he didn’t have the guts to declare an emergency as a result of his incitment, call in the Army and suspend Congress–in other words, a true American Reichstag Fire.
If the FBI is serious about holding the fascists to account, they would have the ringleaders who broke into the Capitol under arrest by the end of the day today.
Agree that those should be charged and tried in court. But what about all of the rioting that have destroyed parts of Minneapolis and many other cities for so long? Only very few have been charged with anything. And don’t say they’re not the same just because it was Washington DC. Whole blocks have been destroyed with many Democrat elected supporting insurgency. Should they also be tried?
And as for the 25th Amendment. That is one huge slippery slope to go down. There is a case for it, but the GOP already cheapened impeachment by trying Clinton and the Dems made it a thousand times worse in their impeachment try a year ago. Just because something is there does not mean you do it. There are consequences to any action. Besides, take the high road and just ignore it for 2 weeks.
Classic whataboutism, nicely done.
Lets campare shall we. BLM protests were largely peaceful, and while there were bad actors involved, it seems that as news comes out, those perpetrating the violence in Minneapolis were from out of town, and white. They should be held accountable in a court of law.
The traitors from yesterday were hell bent on a violent overthrow, and here’s the definition of sedition – can you pick up on the difference. The funny thing is that those terrorists are likely unaware that the penalties for their crimes almost all come with enhancements, meaning if convicted, these traitors will be spending a great deal of time in prison, where they belong.
18 USC §2384—Seditious Conspiracy
If two or more persons in any State or Territory, or in any place subject to the jurisdiction of the United States, conspire to overthrow, put down, or to destroy by force the Government of the United States, or to levy war against them, or to oppose by force the authority thereof, or by force to prevent, hinder, or delay the execution of any law of the United States, or by force to seize, take, or possess any property of the United States contrary to the authority thereof, they shall each be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than twenty years, or both.
Well it is almost 6 PM and both natl broadcasts I watched pushed the same grievances of the democrats. For once would there be a time when we could step out of our tribes for one minute? Many of the comments have also dehumanized republicans as all being cut from the same cloth, that is not entirely true. This could provide the narrowest of windows for a bipartisan bill on weapons of destruction. It might save their own lives!….Personally I would like to see an expansion of medicare but that is unlikely to happen esp. with the new court. Perhaps a green budget that promotes already proven cost effective technologies that specifically employs newly laid off energy workers would be the best we could do.
Dan, I can see from your comments that you and I would agree on a lot of policy issues. I can also see that you were appalled by the destruction of the riots in MN this year. I was, too. But I’d emphasize that the nation has had protests (and, sometimes, riots) over racial injustice for well over 60 years now, and KKK terrorism for decades before that.
But we have NEVER before had a mob of fascist terrorists incited by an American fascist president storm the Congress seeking to halt the peaceful transfer of power, people who were willfully deluded into thinking they were “saving America!” as a result of total fabrications spread by that “president” and a great number of elected Repub enablers for over two months. Given such pervasive and continual Big Lies, a mob was bound to collect; indeed Trumpolini called them to assemble! He then plainly incited them to assault the Congress. That’s got to be the focus now.
A dangerous lunatic is in control of the executive branch, and he must be immediately removed using whatever means are at the nation’s disposal. One doesn’t defeat fascism by hoping it will go away, or “running out the clock” and hoping for the best….and if Repubs won’t unite with Dems in such time of crisis (like the appalling Fischbach and Hagedorn), that’s on them, and is their legacy of coddling/supporting authoritarianism and anti-democratic fantasy.
BK thank you for your comments. I am well versed (well 1/2 way)in authoritarian politics as I am a long time reader of Foreign Policy and Foreign Affairs. I also read Sheri Berman and that trans person who wrote the prize winning book on Russia. I can be honest and un PC. …..All the anger out there now is nothing compared to the repression that is going on right now in Poland, Hungary, Belarus, the Czech republic, Armenia, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Libya, Egypt, Turkey, Russia and China. What makes our readers think they and their opinions so “special”? They are not, the universe does not care one wit about them. We are not that much more elightened then our neighbors to the South. We all join our political tribes and most cannot see outside the patterns that are conforming them. I wish you a good day. Enjoy the weekend if you can.
Masha Geeson is the author I apologize I think the Book is titled The future is history. I followed some of the international “color” revolutions of the near past. They still reverberate today and are effecting all sorts of politics today. And will continue into the decades to come.
The idea that Democrats were elected supporting insurgency is a bald-faced lie. An outright falsehood.
“It is hard to see the water, that you are swimming in.” Ancient wisdom….The perception is there that the dems (which is the tribe I vote for) are on the side of the Mpls protesters. Walz failed to my dismay to critique the protest. The protest can be viewed by a multi variant analysis but usually falls into 3 camps….It is my personal belief that Walz has been hurt by this and by the near constant goading by the ill concieved Gazelka of 2020. I had respect for Galzelka before 2020. As we can see from Tuesday a 1% swing can have HUGE impact….The Manichean mindset that is not Christian before St. Augustine pervades our right left discourse (if there is any discourse at all). It is widening the polarity. IF YOU DARE TO STEP OUT OF THE WATER YOU CAN SEE THIS……The framing is the problem. As Yoda says THERE IS A WAY!!
There is a big difference between supporting insurgency, and not condemning it hard enough. The dems didn’t come down hard enough initially in the wake of the riots, and it cost them this fall. And I know people who thought the looting and destruction was justified then who look like hypocrites now. But the idea that the dems supported it is just a right-wing lie.
Rather impressed you found an argument to respond to out that, whatever that was.
Its really not that hard. Its just that it steps out of the established channels. Read or follow Bret Weinstein and you’ll get educated real fast. Peace.
Thank you for your ad hominen attack. Are you old enough to remember how close some elections in Minnesota have been? Franken Coleman was the big one and it had a Huge impact nationally. Franken did a great deal for the Minnesota DFL as did Entenza but the wrong folks throw them out.
Yeah, I watched Al tell jokes at the afterparty in Rochester, when he beat Jack for the nomination. Considering Norm is the living embodiment of the course of action you describe, I’m not entirely clear how you think this example helps your argument. Had Paul Wellstone survived, quite further to the left of both of them, its quite likely he’d still be in office today.
Who is Jack?
Nelson-Pallmeyer, his supporters put on quite the show.
Could be I misremembered the first name, it was quite a few years ago now.
Oh sure, I remember now.
I said the perception is the problem. You’re a good guy. Smart and short. I apologize if I got too windy there.
Well let’s see if you barely control the Senate and House and you want pass some important bills. You are gonna need some allies. Both parties have some gasbags who need to retire. Feinstein and Grassley in the Senate and Hagedorn in the House. Hagedorn gamed thy system with the pot party. Thats what you should be upset about and somehow act locally.
So, let’s just get that clear shall we? Democrats should overlook a violent, attempted overthrow of the United States federal government, by avowed Fascist enemies of the state, because they need what are presumably allies of said Fascists to accede to their legislative priorities? That’s the argument you REALLY want to go with?
Matt are you using the word fascist properly or do you just like hyperbole? I don’t think there is a bundle of sticks or much outright real organization about what happened yesterday. They all look dumb and dumber. I think the security agencies were caught completely flat footed and some
mismanaged official handicapped them. So it appears you think all republicans are fascists and that simply is not true. And you overlook that had Coleman got elected over Franken, Obama may have had a failed presidency Maybe you need to stop yelling and marching and read a book sometime. I find you are rather extreme and I am glad we are not friends. You are hurting the democratic party. Peace.
“But what about …” Changing the subject, both-sides-ism, etc. won’t work anymore, B0b.
Remind us again. Exactly when did the Floyd protestors attempt violent overthrow of the United States federal government, by infiltrating the national seat of legislative authority, while those legislative bodies were in session, with the stated goal (if the chatter on the right wing fever swamps is to be believed) of taking prisoner multiple elected officials, for the purpose of show trials and public executions on the National Mall? Perhaps I missed it somehow?
To which we can now add bludgeoning a police officer to death with a fire extinguisher, it seems.
The fact that (you believe) prior impeachments were improper does not mean that impeachment can never be proper. This is logic. But I’m glad that even some conservatives can see that “there’s a case for it” here. Indeed, an airtight case in my view.
As for the “high road”, if we can’t understand that we must impeach and remove Trump after his incitement of an insurrection to halt the formal acknowledgement of his democratically-elected successor (i.e. open fascism), then the impeachment clauses have totally failed, amid all the other failures of the collapsing constitution. Not to mention a failed citizenry, citizens who believe that total internet fantasies allow them (as “patriots”) to attack the seat of federal government, and kill people! Every fascist calls themselves a “patriot”, btw; it’s an essential part of the mental complex.
“Besides, take the high road and just ignore it for 2 weeks.”
Back in 1934, the French Popular Front government suppressed a violent uprising by various fascist groups, and then took the high road and proceeded to ignore them. How did that work out for them?
So Ian there is a vast right wing conspiracy out there funded by the Koch Brothers well yes and n0. No, not in this case of dumb and dumber idiots. Many of them are already in jail. You are not playing the long game which is incremental, with sometimes steps back. You should be more upset with The Federalist Society, the electoral college and the Democratic Party which is not well run at many state levels. Yes the republicans play the long game until this past week. Many people have short memories and they work in the energy industry. You should read Rothschild. She was noted for having a very good book where she listened and wrote about the complexities of living and working in the energy industry.
I was shocked at the lack of response from the police. They did little to stop the rioters from breaking into the Capitol, many of them standing passively as the invaders paraded through the building. Even more disturbing is the officer having a selfie taken with one of the rioters. Very few arrests were made. Without severe consequences for the lawbreakers, there is little to stop them from causing further turmoil. I hope examples will be made with long prison sentences for the few that were arrested.
Now, now. White privilege applies to rioters & seditionists.
Please give the simple minded ” white privilege ” slogan a rest. My Italian grandfather came over here to escape the Mafia, lasted one week, and fell in an unmarked open mine shaft and died. His wife and daughters worked as maids to support themselves. They eventually bought two cows and delivered milk to their neighbors to supplement their income. Their son returned from fighting the German fascists ( the ones who killed millions of people) and brought a new dress for his mother, who never possessed any new clothes and arrived to find her dead of exhaustion. He cried about it in his old age, when he told me about it. Yes, there is and continues to be systemic racism against Blacks and it is evil in the eyes of good people and more importantly, the eyes of the Lord. The wealthy man in Scripture got flung in hell and the man, he mistreated wound up with Abraham. And yes, as someone pointed out, I do commit sins, and am not the peer of Mother Theresa.
There is a very simple white privilege test that any honest white person can take: If it were possible, would you trade places with a black person? Simple question, but it does require honesty.
Your white privilege is that you don’t have to recognize it.
When you were a child, were you told what to do when (not if, when) you are stopped by the police?
It is really incumbent upon the Vice-President and the Cabinet to vote that Trump is unable to discharge the duties of office under the 25th Amendment. For no other reason that there should be no more pardons for lawless and criminal, let alone seditious and insurrectionist, behavior during the remaining two weeks of this administration.
It’s not going to happen. Pence is refusing to do it, and there are only ten Senate-confirmed cabinet Secretaries (it is unclear whether acting Secretaries may vote on a 25th Amendment action). Eight of the ten would have to vote in favor, and that doesn’t seem plausible.
Apocalyptic hope is generated when a segment of society sees that society has changed to such an extent that things will never be like they were before. Racist “evangelical Christians” in the US have reached that point.
There are reports that law enforcement allowed protesters in. Law enforcement, at least on the Capitol perimeter, appeared to be absent and/or willfully allowing the rioters to express their unfounded grievances. The extent to which racist or classist attitudes prevail among our police and military will become an increasing problem if it is not addressed.
I was very surprised at how limited and ineffective the insurrection was given that right-wingers have been planning such an action for years. We will surely see more of this unrest. We should all be thankful for the incompetence of the out-going administration and the extreme self-centeredness of Trump. It might not be so easy the next time.
“With an incumbent who has been advocating for a strong law-and-order agenda, many people did not expect this. In a country with a strong domestic security apparatus, militias and vigilantes hurt rather than help in promoting the rule of law.”
This level of naivete is head-scratching. Certainly in Professor Koren’s field of study he must know that there is no sincerity, only manipulation, in authoritarian speech. In our nation’s history, no figure wielding great power has been more contemptuous of law & order – in the democratic sense of that term – than Trump. And the question here on which all else hangs – that will decide which trajectory our nation takes from here – is whether the institutions of law enforcement – local, state, federal – are committed to law & order or, conversely, will throw in with the authoritarians and the nihilists. Yet this variable is entirely absent from Professor Koren’s remarks.