Unhappy New Year in national politics: impeachment, shutdown showdown, Ukraine uncertainty

WASHINGTON — The political year gets off to a very rocky start as House Republicans kick off their newly formalized impeachment inquiry into President Biden, a showdown over spending threatens to shut down part of the federal government, and as Ukraine continues to plead for U.S. aid amid a growing number of skeptics in Congress. 

“Oh, God, yes,” Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin, D-Illinois, told reporters when asked last month if he was concerned about what January would bring. 

The U.S. House and U.S. Senate will gavel back into session next week. And the problems and impasses that characterized Congress last year will spill over into 2024.

A growing number of Democrats will continue to insist on conditions placed on aid to Israel and for money to help displaced Palestinians and address the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

Sens. Tina Smith and Amy Klobuchar were among 24 Democratic senators and two independents who wrote President Biden seeking assurances that Israel has a viable plan for defeating Hamas and that the United States will not be funding actions that break international and U.S. laws.  

“We ask you to inform us about what specific mechanisms you are putting in place to ensure that Israeli military operations conducted inside Gaza are carried out in accordance with international humanitarian law and to ensure that any U.S.-provided equipment is used in a manner consistent with U.S. law,” the letter said. 

Some Democrats are also upset with Biden for the president’s use of emergency authority to bypass Congress in sending arms to Israel.

Breaking with House leaders

There will probably be bad news this month for several Republicans running for the White House. Republicans hold their first presidential primary caucus, in Iowa, on Jan. 15. Those Iowa caucuses are expected to be won by former President Trump, giving him momentum in the New Year. 

And once again, there is the looming threat of a government shutdown: The first of two funding deadlines happens just 10 days after lawmakers return next week. The second shutdown deadline is just weeks later. Yet there has been no movement toward an agreement on a budget between the Democratic-controlled U.S. Senate and the Republican-held U.S. House. 

Congress approved a “laddered,” short-term spending bill that funds the departments of Agriculture, Veterans Affairs, Energy, Transportation and Housing and Urban Development until Jan. 19 at last fiscal year’s levels. Funding of the rest of the federal government would run out Feb. 2.

E.J. Dionne, a senior fellow at the Brooking Institution and a professor at the McCourt School of Public Policy at Georgetown University, still thinks there is a chance to avoid a shutdown.

He said the 17 U.S. House Republicans who represent districts won by Biden in 2020 may decide to vote with Democrats to keep the government running.  

“We’ve been waiting for them to break with House leadership,” Dionne said.

With the surprise announcement this week that Rep. Bill Johnson, R-New York, will quit the U.S. House later this month, the GOP will be left with a two-vote margin in that chamber. 

But there is no guarantee that there will be any bipartisanship, because Republicans who cross party lines are at a risk of primary challenges from the right, he said.

However, Dionne said new House Speaker Mike Johnson is less likely to face a revolt from the most conservative members of the House GOP conference if he makes a deal with Democrats than former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, whose ouster was partly the result of personal vendettas. 

Presidential campaign kicks off

Dionne is also optimistic that Congress will approve more money for Ukraine, something a growing number of House Republicans oppose and others insist be linked to tough, new immigration measures. 

“I think Democrats and Republicans in the U.S. Senate will come to an agreement on Ukraine and that will pressure the U.S. House to get something done,” he said.

Meanwhile, Rep. Dean Phillips, D-3rd District, will face his first real test as a presidential candidate when New Hampshire holds its primary on Jan. 23. The Democratic National Committee and Biden decided to schedule the first Democratic primary in South Carolina — a much more racially diverse state — breaking with a tradition of holding the first primary in New Hampshire and the first caucus in Iowa. 

The rebellious New England state decided to schedule its contest before South Carolina anyway, prompting Biden to keep his name off the ballot.  There is a Biden write-in effort. But whatever the results of the New Hampshire primary, Politico says they will be subjected to a lot of spin.

“Biden could win the contest and still look like a loser. His challenger, Dean Phillips, could lose and claim victory,” Politico said.

Dionne said the “margin of difference” in the balloting in New Hampshire between Biden and whoever comes second will “be an additional measure” for those who are trying to determine who is the real winner in the  state.  

The race for the White House has begun in earnest this month and is expected to be one of the most acrimonious in history, especially if it is a Biden-Trump rematch.  

One issue that has ratcheted up partisan animosities is the decision by Colorado and Maine to keep Trump off the GOP primary ballot. Minnesota’s Supreme Court has ruled the state cannot do so, but other states are mounting challenges. 

The U.S. Supreme Court will likely ultimately make that decision as well as rule on whether the former president is immune from prosecution for actions he took while president. 

In an interview on MSNBC, Minnesota Secretary of State Steve Simon said the U.S. Supreme Court must accept the case because allowing individual courts to decide whether Trump should be on the ballot would result in a situation that is  “administratively crazy.”

“Trump will either be on the ballot everywhere or nowhere,” Simon said.

To add to the acrimony, House Republicans will begin their official impeachment inquiry of Biden this month, based largely on the president’s relationship with his son Hunter.

Biden is likely to give his State of the Union address this month, although a date has not been set. Dionne said that key speech in an election year will signal the issues that will be central to Biden’s reelection campaign, which he said includes eliminating Trump-era tax cuts for the very wealthy to fund child care, pre-Kindergarten and even possibly a new child tax credit.

“He’s also likely to run on democracy, Trump and abortion rights,” Dionne said.

One thing is certain in this new year: Political gridlock and extreme partisanship are expected to get even worse.  

“If you look at the polling, people who identify as Democrats are willing to compromise to get things done. They are willing to take half a loaf,” Dionne said. “Republicans want government to do less, so they have less of an interest in compromising to get things done.”