The Timberwolves’ first West Coast road trip of the 2013-14 season was a night owl’s delight for the fans back home. It was inaugurated by a meteor shower of made baskets en route to a 47-point first-quarter explosion (a franchise scoring record) on Sunday night against the Los Angeles Lakers, and culminated by a gritty comeback from a double-digit fourth-quarter deficit Monday night versus the Los Angeles Clippers that fell two points and two agonizingly close putbacks short of victory.
This pair of highly entertaining games confirmed the mostly positive but also distinctively negative trends that have marked the Wolves season thus far.
The team currently boasts one of the best starting lineups in the NBA, a sublimely complementary quintet that is blending outlandish talent and admirable sweat equity, shiny charisma and disciplined ensemble modesty, to create a spectacle of character and personality that makes it easy — and almost involuntary — to root for their success.
The right mix of starters
You have to begin with the superstar, Kevin Love, who simply has been the best player in the NBA thus far this season. Love is second in scoring (26.4 points per game), first in rebounding (15 boards per game), tied for 24th in assists at five per game, and playing the most effective team and individual defense of his career.
To give you an idea of Love’s distinctive skill set, the next best rebounder among the NBA’s current top-25 in assists is Nicholas Batum with 7.1, less than half Love’s rebounding total per game. Love currently ranks sixth in both made free throws and made three-pointers, a testimonial to his savvy shot selection. His outlet passes have become a magnificent, crowd-pleasing weapon in the Wolves’ offense.
He is the unquestioned leader of this team — the Wolves’ longest-tenured player at the tender age of 25 — and has assumed the mantle with understated aplomb.
The rest of the starters slide into their roles with assembly-line precision. Point guard Ricky Rubio is the aggressive prong of the perimeter defense and somewhat of an unsung hero in the way he has accommodated Love as a co-facilitator in the half-court offense. Nikola Pekovic is the throwback brute, the twirling block of granite who both engenders and benefits from the floor-spacing provided by his low-post scoring prowess and the team’s upgraded three-point shooting.
Love, Rubio, and Pekovic are the core trio of stars that Wolves new President of Basketball Operations Flip Saunders talked about as the anchors of this franchise before the season started. But it is the way Saunders has supplemented that threesome with a pair of new wing players, who have caulked up the seams of this starting unit, that has transformed the Wolves into a legitimate playoff contender.
I was highly skeptical of Saunders’ free-agent signings of both Kevin Martin and Corey Brewer. Put simply, I believed Martin’s shoddy defense would take away more points than his scoring would add, and that Brewer lacked the bulk and discipline to be the wing stopper on defense that was so obviously required after the departure of Andrei Kirilenko. Eight games into the season, the play of K-Mart and Brewer have vindicated Saunders and trumped those reservations.
The mutual trust and camaraderie that exists between Love and Martin is one of the more encouraging aspects of this young season. Love has never had a perimeter scorer as prolific as Martin for a Wolves teammate, and he must certainly recognize a kindred spirit in the way Martin seeks to maximize his offensive efficiency by generating three-pointers and free throws whenever possible.
Meanwhile, Martin knew exactly what he was doing when he lobbied hard for the Wolves to sign him. With Love as a matchup nightmare capable of going inside or outside, Pekovic as a force in the paint, Rubio the passing maestro with the mutant court vision, and his old teacher and coach Rick Adelman choreographing the offense, this team is a custom fit for his scoring talents, which are ideally suited to be a second option but with the freedom to shoot when he sees the opportunity.
Thus far, Martin is enjoying the best season of his 10-year career. He is shooting more frequently than ever before (17.6 shots per 36 minutes) while matching his best true-shooting percentage (which groups field goal, three point and free throw accuracy) from 2007-08 in Sacramento. He has seized on the open spacing and Adelman’s sets to nail a remarkable 55.8 percent of his three-pointers and has scored at least two treys in all but one of the Wolves’ first eight games.
For a team that finished dead last in long-distance accuracy a year ago, is missing injured three-point shooter Chase Budinger, and, even with Martin’s deadeye shooting, currently ranks 18th in three-point percentage, Martin has been enormously valuable.
Then there is Brewer, the spindly sparkplug who has a sado-masochistic relationship with chaos on the court, mucking the game into a ballet of near-pratfalls with his nonstop intensity. Even with Budinger out, Adelman wasn’t positive Brewer should start at small forward, waiting until the day of the season opener to make his decision.
But Brewer has thus far made good on his vow of mature decision-making out on the court. After shooting more frequently and less accurately than any of his nine other teammates on the Denver Nuggets last season, he is jacking up the fewest shots of anyone in the Wolves starting five and converting a career-best 48.2 percent of them. That’s because 49 of Brewer’s 85 shots have come right at the rim, and the bulk of those have either been on long outlet passes from Love or backdoor cuts that are integral to Adelman’s system.
Ball hawks on the perimeter
But even more than his improved shot selection, Brewer’s commitment to defense has made him another off-season coup for Saunders. He has stepped into Kirilenko’s wing-stopper role well enough for the Wolves to continue the defensive strategy that functioned so effectively last season — limit the damage of opponents’ possessions by not fouling, grabbing rebounds and forcing turnovers.
It was a strategy Minnesota executed well enough a year ago to rank 13th in defensive efficiency (fewest points allowed per possession). This year, incredibly enough, they have climbed to fifth, according to Basketball Reference, despite allowing many more offensive rebounds than a season ago (an area where Kirilenko is sorely missed).
But the Wolves’ perimeter defense more than compensates for the team’s lower defensive rebounding percentage. It is a tenacious, ball-hawking element of their style, spearheaded by Rubio and Brewer, although Martin, like Love, has been a pleasant surprise on defense — his 6-7 frame is 5 inches taller than last year’s primary shooting guard, Luke Ridnour.
MinnPost photo by Craig LassigThus far, Kevin Martin is enjoying the best season of his 10-year career.
First of all, Minnesota’s 81 steals are the most in the NBA, a major way they have generated a league-leading 150 turnovers by their opponents — obviously the most clearcut way to ensure an empty possession. Second, the Wolves currently rank 9th in lowest opponents’ three-point percentage, permitting just 33.2 percent compared to the league average of 35.8. Anyone who watches the games knows that these stats are mostly a tribute to Rubio — there aren’t a half-dozen point guards better than he is on defense.
But the backbone of Minnesota’s stealth effectiveness on defense is the team-wide absence of shooting fouls (well, except for rookie center Gorgui Dieng). Opponents make fewer free throws per game against the Wolves than any other team, even as Minnesota converts the third-most free throws per game on offense.
The current disparity is plus-81 in made free throws, or an extr 10 points per game. Without that edge, the Wolves would be outscored by four points per game thus far, as they currently rack up 106.3 points per game while permitting 100.3.
Bench goes from bad to worse
That six-point differential also highlights how much the Wolves rely on their starters for success. According to the lineup stats at nba.com, the aforementioned quintet have played together as a unit more than any other starting five—23.9 minutes or almost exactly half the game. During that period, the Wolves outscore their opponents by 8.1 points, which is roughly 12 points per 36 minutes or 16 points per full game.
Beginning with Wednesday night’s game against Dallas, Adelman began sifting in his inferior reserves with the starters, in the hopes of mitigating the dramatic declines that were inevitably occurring when the subs entered the game en masse. I devoted my last column to Minnesota’s woeful bench production so I won’t belabor the issue as much here.
Nevertheless, the abysmal lack of depth is a lodestone on the team’s fortunes moving forward, and the situation isn’t improving. On the tail end of a back-to-back Monday night, Minnesota needed their reserves to step up. Instead, the situation deteriorated the more subs Adelman put on the floor late in the first quarter and early in the second quarter. And when Adelman left his bench crew in an extra minute of two midway through the fourth quarter, the Clippers surged again.
In the end, the plus/minus numbers told the sorry story in stark fashion. In a two-point loss, every one of the Wolves starters was in plus territory and every one of the reserves was a minus (plus/minus measure how the team fares on the scoreboard when that player is in the game). The backcourt of J.J. Barea and Alexey Shved was a combined 1-for-11 shooting.
Shved needs to be benched. Never mentally tough, his confidence and body language advertise his vulnerability in neon, and with Budinger out, opponents know they can exploit the backup shooting guard matchup whenever Shved enters the game. It wasn’t hard to predict that he would be dominated by the Clippers’ Jamal Crawford on Monday, for example.
Whether Shved’s minutes get taken by third-string point guard A.J. Price, rookie swingman Shabazz Muhammad, or someone off the street in free agency, Shved is no longer a viable option. The core of this Wolves team is too solid, too complementary and too promising to endanger its momentum by regularly including Shved as part of the game plan.
In other words, Saunders may need to reach into that magic bag and pull out another wing.
I worried about the JJ & Shved pairing before this season, and it’s been even worse than expected. Barea has continued to dominate the ball beyond what’s reasonable of any point guard — especially one of his ability level — and Shved continues to struggle in the wing role. I can’t speak to his mental toughness, because he’s never shown a shooting-guard skill set (in the NBA, anyway) to make me wonder if he’s underachieving in his current position. But it did seem that in his successful stretch last season (which is becoming increasingly hard to comprehend) he would get more comfortable throughout the game with more touches — in particular, more dribbling responsibility.
Britt, you shared a great Kirilenko quote last season about how Ricky Rubio gets everybody touching the ball, early and often, and how that helps the team later in the game. JJ would be the exact opposite when handed lead guard duty. The NBA’s new player tracking data can actually put a number on this. J.J. ranks 57th in the league in time of possession per game (slightly ahead of Kevin Durant, slightly behind Dwyane Wade and Carmelo Anthony). He possesses the ball 3.0 minutes per game. The problem is he only plays 18.2 minutes per game. That’s about 16.5 percent of the time he’s on the floor. Assuming defense is half of his playing time it’s about 33 percent of the offense that has him dribbling around. It’s less than the league’s top point guards (who seem to be roughly 20 percent, by my calculations) but then two things need to be considered: 1) He’s not nearly as good as the Chris Pauls or Damian Lillards that league the league in possession time; and 2) He shares the floor with Ricky Rubio for 6.4 minutes of his 18.2 total, which would dilute his possession time for 1/3 of his nightly minutes and jack it up when he shares the floor with Shved and the second team. He’s playing like Chris Paul, but without the ability.
A Hidden Column
Andy–
Sincere thanks on dropping some serious research and analysis in my little corner of the Wolvesophere when you have a solid forum of your own in punchdrunkwolves.com.
Barea, like Brewer, proves the uselessness of gauging preseason for anything but physical condition. Where Brewer looked typically antic and turnover hungry via mad dribbling and chuck-em-up clanks, Barea seemed healthy, in rhythm from the summer international competition, and primed to be a catalyst off the bench.
Instead, against pretty stiff competition, his last few games may be his worst stretch as a Timberwolf, for all the reasons you have so diligently laid out.
Thanks again. And stop in to enrich this forum any time you feel like it.
Bench
Love the analysis and prose, Britt. Thanks for your writing.
On the starters – I, too, am pleasantly stunned at how well the starting 5 has meshed thus far. I don’t think I was as worried as you or other commenters about the Kirilenko/Brewer switch, but I certainly was concerned about how Martin might fit in. The offensive side for him is obvious, but in thinking about his role on defense, I’ve thought a lot about what you noted – namely, that in comparison with Ridnour, it can’t be much of a drop-off from last year’s squad given his superior height and reach (even though Luke arguably tried a bit more valiantly). And at least to date, the defensive numbers for the starters look really good.
On the bench, though, one major quibble with you there. I agree that Shved has looked nothing like an NBA player thus far, but I do feel that you have generally been extremely hard on him the past season plus. I have no idea what’s going on with him confidence-wise/mentally, but it seems from all available evidence that whatever his issue is, it is between the ears, and to me, that is potentially fixable. I’m not quite ready to give up on him yet.
And I also think it’s a little unfair to spend so much time focus on Shved’s flaws given that the real drop-off thus far this year has been in the play of Barea and Cunningham, not to mention the continued “lost”-ness of Williams. Granted, all these things are inter-related, but the optimist in me sees this bench as fixable, and not just a lost cause (like for instance the Pacers’ bench last year).
Thanks, again. And Go Wolves.
I cop to the bias
Will–
First of all, thanks for the smart, thoughtful contribution.
I have been, and am, hard on Shved, because I think he is a prima donna. I got in a little controversy when I said that Shved “quit on the team” last year, and perhaps that overstated it. But the abiding point was that Shved gave up, whether due to mental or physical exhaustion or simply a dearth of competitive spirit. Anyone who saw Shved in Nov-Dec and then again in Feb-March would immediately notice the difference.
This year, Shved has not adjusted to what he most certainly should have expected–that NBA opponents would continue to be physical and aggressive with him, after his lack of response to that sort of challenge last season.
Look, I’m not trying to play some macho pose here–I don’t need Shved to be any tougher than is necessary for him to surmount the challenges that are so clearly in front of him. Instead I see him shirk from the challenge, complain to the refs, and sometimes not go 100 percent back down the floor in transition.
I also see a player who was accustomed to a central role on his team, but who functions best when the rest of the team conforms to his rhythms and decision-making. The things I did like about Shved early last year were his size and his willingness to take a big shot at crunchtime. But neither one of those things require an honest assessment of his weaknesses and a desire to remedy them. And until Shved demonstrates he is smart and diligent enough to take those steps, I don’t respect him.
Finally, love them or hate them, Cunningham and Barea go down doing everything they can to contribute. I believe Cunningham is the anti-Shved–he knows the flaws in his game and if anything he is trying too hard to fix them. Barea is Barea–whatever you think of him he is about to do something that will change your mind.
As for Derrick Williams, intriguing talent but a bad fit, not only on this ballclub but in the NBA at large, I fear. Lately I have been grouping him in my mind with the Wolves tenure of Randy Foye, another highly drafted player who could really tease you with talent, didn’t have a great grasp of what he did well, and seemed to fall between positions on the court.
Thanks for the expanded thoughts on Shved. I can’t really disagree. I think that I was just so impressed by him in the early parts of last season that I keep hoping to see that player re-emerge.
And on Barea and Cuningham, I didn’t mean to come off too harsh on them. I really enjoy them both, and think they can be (and have been) vital cogs to a good bench. They’re in many ways ideal back-ups to the starters on this team. They’ve just really struggled thus far, which does feed my optimism that if their play can pick up, the bench unit as a whole will look much better. Based on their histories, I think they will eventually perform better, especially once the injured bench guys (Budinger and Turiaf) return and give that unit some more competence.
Planting a few thoughts
First:
Do you think that the departure of Kirlenko has hurt Shved? I agree that Shved is playing terribly this year; and in any case, its a true disappointment. It may be tougher for him to overcome hurdles and play with confidence without the advice/encouragement of a veteran, friend, and native-russian-speaker on the roster. (Bonus note: Some other folks have recommended him at PG instead of SG with Barea. I believe its worth a shot, as is any credible idea for mixing up the 2nd unit.)
Second:
Do you really think Williams hasn’t improved this year? To my eyes, he has clearly put in the off-season work to transform his body. What’s more, his limited minutes have seen him play better team defense and finish at the rim better than he has in the past. While I believe he is not a great fit for this team, my purely subjective judgement is that he is playing markedly better. The only proof I can offer is that Adelman is playing him, when a number of other intriguing options are sitting at the end of the bench. I would ask you to give it a little more consideration over the next few games.
A final note, I am an minnesotan transplant to the east coast, and my only interaction with Minnpost is your Twolves coverage. As a result, I will happily make my annual contribution to the paper and I hope other fans to do. Content this good shouldn’t be free!
kirilenko and williams
Adam–
First of all, the institutional support you provided to Minnpost on my behalf is very much appreciated. It can’t help but improve my standing in the eyes of the folks who run this shop, and for that you have my sincere thanks.
As to your points, AK was around all of last year, and I always wondered how and why he wasn’t able to deter what seemed liked a pretty relentless slide by Shved. For that reason, I’m not sure how much he could or would be helping this season.
Adelman has never regarded Shved as a point guard, probably because Shved’s playmaking seems best when he initiates something off the dribble, a freelancing not in sync with Adelman’s system. One of the things that bothered me about Shved last season was that there was no snap to his passes, removing crucial slivers of time that can make a difference in the flow. He also frequently leaves his feet before he is absolutely sure the pass can be made. These troubling habits all augur against him at the point, although I do think he is best suited there now, if only because it would necessarily make him more engaged, which could get him out of his own head more often.
In conclusion on Shved, I think that his ability to resume playing well for the Russian national team during the off-season was a detriment to his NBA progress. It restored a smugness in his game and demeanor that is unrealistic to adopt, considering his inability to break down NBA competition in a similar fashion, let alone that it further removes him from Adelman’s system.
What you say about Williams is true until it isn’t, meaning that he remains maddeningly inconsistent, both mentally and stylistically. Yes he is thinner and quicker, and I suppose he is finishing better, although if you recall he was trying to finish at the rim all the time early last season (on Adelman’s orders), which made his many failures that much more obvious.
I won’t deny that he is hurt by his relationship with Adelman, who is absolutely the wrong coach for him at this stage in both of their careers. And I do think it must be disheartening for him to hear that Adelman regards him primarily as a power forward after he has spent the past two off-seasons sculpting his body to be a small forward.
But ultimately, he has had a lot of NBA minutes to prove himself and from what I can see, the only thing he is a guaranteed plus-talent on is rebounding–he has a nose and a hunger for the ball and uses his athleticism extremely well on the boards. But in terms of team defense (I disagree slightly that he has markedly improved–sometimes yes but it is inconsistent), shot selection and the other vagaries of quality team play, he hasn’t improved or utilized his natural ability nearly as much as a neutral observer would hope or expect.
Thanks again for writing.
Not that the Wolves necessarily should, but
In order to get the best out of Shved, the Wolves would need to allow him to dictate more of the ballhandling responsibilities when he plays in the second unit. The part of his game that impressed me with Rubio’s absence at the beginning of last year was his ability to be a poor man’s Rubio on pick and rolls; fluid ballhandling and a decent eye for a pass.
Sharing the backcourt with Berea definitely isn’t helping him play to his strengths. And as it currently stands, he plays matador defense and can’t space the floor with an adequate outside shot. Despite his size, Shved just doesn’t have what we need if we’re going to play him as a 2-guard.
I think he could be a rotation player somewhere in the NBA, but as long as Adelman prefers Berea as his backup PG I don’t see a role for Shved on this team short of a personal transformation as a player.
I’m sure the less-than-stellar attitude isn’t helping matters, either.
Even when they lose
this is the most entertaining Wolves team ever. My new schedule has me getting up at 4 am and I just assumed I’d fall asleep during last night’s game. Not hardly.
Bud and Turiaf will help the bench but this team is just one trade away from greatness. I could not believe we played that tough on the second night of a back to back against a rested team. I won’t say the refs robbed us, but I think it’s clear the Clippers couldn’t have won without them.
Great analysis. Between you and the more fannish Canis Hoopsters I’m enjoying the hell out of this young season.
Jekyll Hyde
It’s been a real joy to watch this team (okay, the starters) play this year. The Wolves starters are doing all the little things right, and the season thus far shows how those things can add up to create gaudy leads in several games so far. But it’s frustrating to know that we have very little chance of maintaining or stretching a lead when the starters aren’t on the court. While I like Adelman’s latest tactic of playing mix-and-match with the starters and reserves, this team is going to run out of gas early if we expect Love-and-co to play from behind and recapture the lead every time they get some rest. In a long 82-game season, it’s important to remember that we’re in November right now, and many long winter nights are still ahead of us. And if you’re the type who worries about Love’s future in MN, I’d be just as concerned with mental fatigue as I would be with winning.
While Shved has looked the worst of the bench so far, it’s more than just him. We all know JJ can shoot us into or out of games, and last night was an example of that. Similarly, you know what you’re going to get from Dante, and I think he deserves some slack for his heady play last year as well as his willingness to keep shooting (and to dunk every putback chance he gets).
That said, our options to bolster the bench are quite limited. No first-rounder this year means we can’t even trade next year’s pick either. Derrick Williams has done nothing to improve his value, and I’m unsure on whether teams find him more or less appealing with the option year tacked onto his deal. It’s strange to think that Shabazz Muhammad is perhaps our most valuable non-starting trade chip, yet he can’t crack the rotation ahead of a struggling Shved – though of course that may have more to do with Adelman’s desire for continuity than anything. If we’re hellbent on increasing Derrick’s trade value (and I think that ship has sailed), he should be playing all his minutes with Rubio on the floor.
As much as I dislike small backcourts, I think our best option at the moment might be to play AJ and JJ together. AJ is not a terrible 3-point shooter and has at least been in the league long enough to handle himself. And if we’re going to consider playing Shabazz, his game would benefit from Love’s outlet passes. I’d much rather improve our bench strength by trading for a veteran or two than try to tinker with the roster we have at the moment.
Price
Barring a trade, I think the only option Adelman has in place of playing Shved is giving Price a try in the rotation. Pairing him with Shved would be a ridiculously short back court, but he did manage to play pretty decent minutes for the Wizards last season. Otherwise, realizing that with Shved completely overmatched, perhaps Price is a luxury they can’t afford and they should waive him to bring Jeffers back if Budinger is going to be out much longer. He’s coming up on six weeks now, right? I know the team has never announced a timetable, but it sounded like his recovery was projected in the 6-8 week range?
Price in the backcourt
Anton and Mark–
You both opt for Price as a quasi-remedy (and are smart enough to point out the downsides), and I certainly get that what we need off the bench is someone beside Barea who won’t be overwhelmed by the situation, which always give JJ a free pass on create on his own–as Andy said in comment 1, that’s akin to a pretend Chris Paul blowing up sets.
I mentioned Price because I too see the benefit of his veteran stability, plus he’s been on the cusp of a roster more than once and know when an opportunity needs to be seized–at the very least, he’d be as mentally and physically ready as possible.
Budinger is seen by doctors tomorrow, I believe. But he still hasn’t started working out and is most likely weeks away–Russell Westbrook he’s not, in more ways than one.
Budinger
According to Jerry Z’s latest article, Flip is hoping to get Bud back by Christmas, which is still six weeks/20 games away, including five more back-to-backs. Yikes.
I really think they either need to give Price a shot with Shved’s minutes or waive him to bring in Jeffers or some other option on the wing. I think Shved could probably fill the role of PG who only plays in garbage time/emergency.
Jekyll Hyde
It’s been a real joy to watch this team (okay, the starters) play this year. The Wolves starters are doing all the little things right, and the season thus far shows how those things can add up to create gaudy leads in several games so far. But it’s frustrating to know that we have very little chance of maintaining or stretching a lead when the starters aren’t on the court. While I like Adelman’s latest tactic of playing mix-and-match with the starters and reserves, this team is going to run out of gas early if we expect Love-and-co to play from behind and recapture the lead every time they get some rest. In a long 82-game season, it’s important to remember that we’re in November right now, and many long winter nights are still ahead of us. And if you’re the type who worries about Love’s future in MN, I’d be just as concerned with mental fatigue as I would be with winning.
While Shved has looked the worst of the bench so far, it’s more than just him. We all know JJ can shoot us into or out of games, and last night was an example of that. Similarly, you know what you’re going to get from Dante, and I think he deserves some slack for his heady play last year as well as his willingness to keep shooting (and to dunk every putback chance he gets).
That said, our options to bolster the bench are quite limited. No first-rounder this year means we can’t even trade next year’s pick either. Derrick Williams has done nothing to improve his value, and I’m unsure on whether teams find him more or less appealing with the option year tacked onto his deal. It’s strange to think that Shabazz Muhammad is perhaps our most valuable non-starting trade chip, yet he can’t crack the rotation ahead of a struggling Shved – though of course that may have more to do with Adelman’s desire for continuity than anything. If we’re hellbent on increasing Derrick’s trade value (and I think that ship has sailed), he should be playing all his minutes with Rubio on the floor.
As much as I dislike small backcourts, I think our best option at the moment might be to play AJ and JJ together. AJ is not a terrible 3-point shooter and has at least been in the league long enough to handle himself. And if we’re going to consider playing Shabazz, his game would benefit from Love’s outlet passes. I’d much rather improve our bench strength by trading for a veteran or two than try to tinker with the roster we have at the moment.