Minnesota Timberwolves power forward Kevin Love is doing and saying all the right things. Belatedly, and for the moment, so is the Wolves’ management. Consequently, Wolves fans get to watch Love make a valiant, likely Byzantine, quest to lead his squad into the playoffs over the final seven weeks of the 2013-14 season. If you love basketball and live in Minnesota, this is good news indeed.
Love’s performance in Wednesday night’s win over Indiana at Target Center exceeded the bar of high expectations he has established during his six seasons in a Wolves uniform. Indiana allows the fewest points per game and per possession to indisputably rank as the best defensive team in the NBA. Aside from Love, Minnesota was minus its top two scorers in center Nikola Pekovic and swingman Kevin Martin. Thus, the Wolves’ lone All Star walked out on the court with Corey Brewer, Ronny Turiaf, Ricky Rubio and Chase Budinger, not exactly a murderer’s row of sharpshooters.
Love set the tone early by nailing a pair of three-pointers. Midway through the first quarter, he drew the second foul on Indiana’s stalwart defender David West, sending West to the sidelines. By the time Love himself rested, with 9:47 left in the first half, the Wolves were up 36-20 and he had posted 12 points and 9 rebounds in those initial 14:13 minutes of action.
When it was over, those numbers had grown to 42 points and 17 rebounds, and that only begins to tally his impact on the game. Because Love was 5-for-10 from three-point territory (the rest of the Wolves were 1-for-10), he spaced the floor enough that Turiaf, a longtime backup center, was sufficiently open to score on 5-of-7 field goal attempts down near the hoop while drawing enough fouls to get to the free throw line eight times.
Then there was the titanic battle of the boards. With its exceptionally large and physical front line, Indiana came into the game allowing the lowest percentage of defensive rebounds to their opponents of any team in the NBA. Love came in leading the NBA in defensive rebounding percentage. Something had to give and it wasn’t Love, who corralled 15 defensive rebounds, enabling Brewer to constantly leak out for transition baskets and fueling Minnesota’s 18-8 advantage in fast-break points. (The Pacers rank third in fewest fast-break points allowed at 11.2 per game.)
Last, but far from least, on Wednesday Love resoundingly rebutted what have been the chronic flaws in his game. He hustled all 94 feet to both ends of the court, which came in handy when he tipped in a blocked Brewer layup to help staunch an Indiana rally in the second quarter, and, on the defensive end contributed to West and leviathan center Roy Hibbert combining to shoot just 4-for-15 for the game.
In fact, Love’s team defense — especially his switches to prevent baseline drives on the side pick-and-roll and his back-filling when Turiaf roamed out to block a shot — addressed a season-long weakness. And, perhaps most difficult of all for Love, he didn’t allow himself to become unduly distracted by the inconsistent officiating, even when Indiana’s Ian Mahinmi pretended to be hit in the mouth by Love (gulling the official to call a foul) so blatantly that Mahinmi was later fined for “flopping” by the NBA.
To state the obvious, then, Love is a special talent, deserving to be rated just a notch below the very elite players such as Lebron James and Kevin Durant. He is a player you cherish being able to watch, one whose services you try to retain almost at all costs.
And there’s the rub that is only going to beget more rubbish in the weeks ahead.
Tools and distractions
On either side of the Indiana game were events on the NBA calendar catering to pundits and fans who gravitate toward glitz and gossip — All Star weekend and the trading deadline.
Longtime Wolves fans who remember Kevin Garnett being a perennial All Star from a mediocre team understand that an enduring subtext amid the pageantry of the weekend events is badgering and speculating about when such a player is going to pull up stakes to go perform for a better ballclub. Because the Wolves have underachieved to the point where, for the 10th season in a row, it is unlikely they will make the playoffs, Love was a sitting duck for this unfortunate ritual. By now he is sufficiently versed in the media vaudeville to short-circuit many of the queries without becoming impolitic (which would simply add a different sort of fuel to the fire). All things considered, he effectively tamped down the hubbub over his future employment.
Between All Star weekend and the Indiana game, GQ magazine published a choice quote from Love that further doused the most rampant rumor, which is that he is champing at the bit to head for Los Angeles, where he and his girlfriend live in the off-season, and play for the storied Lakers franchise.
“People think it is so far-fetched that I would stay in Minnesota,” Love told locally based writer Steve Marsh. “And I’m not shitting on the Lakers, but we have the better team, the better foundation. I’m having fun.”
But in the world of social media — and, less blatantly, in the PR offices of the NBA and the Machiavellian constructs of rival NBA front offices — dormant speculation over Love’s future isn’t good for business.
So it was that shortly after Love’s spectacular performance on national television versus Indiana, veteran New York Post writer Peter Vecsey tweeted that Love had already told Wolves President of Basketball Operations Flip Saunders that he would exercise his option to discontinue his contract and become a free agent at the end of next season. That same night, Saunders denied Vescey’s claim in his own tweet. On Thursday, Love followed suit with his own denial in a meeting with reporters.
“It’s a media-driven story. I just, for the past couple of years, can’t believe some of the stuff that has come out,” Love said. “I got a slew of those questions [at All Star weekend] and basically said I’m done talking about it. Then Peter Vescey, who I don’t think I’ve ever talked to, comes out with a story.”
Like it or not, these types of distractions are a permanent part of life in the world of modern sports. The Wolves are to blame to the extent that their best efforts to surround Love with quality personnel have not borne fruit — Love’s best season still may not be enough to avoid the indignity of never having been eligible for the playoffs after six years in the league.
The media is to blame to the extent that there are enough “personalities” in our ranks willing to be shills in exchange for a little ego primping. Folks like Vecsey — and before him Chris Broussard, who earlier this season quoted an “Eastern Conference general manager” as saying Love going to the Lakers was “a one-hundred percent certainty” — crave their status as “insiders.” They are more accurately gossip-mongers, literally tools wielded by their sources to further a specific but significantly anonymous agenda in an effort to bolster a client or team or entourage.
To state the obvious, the scenarios painted by Vecsey and Broussard cannot occur for more than a year. During that time, anything can happen. Of course that is also why statements by Love and Saunders should not be viewed as having long-term veracity. In a very similar situation, center Dwight Howard stated he would likely remain with the Orlando Magic a few years ago, only to eventually sign as a free agent with the Lakers.
Nobody can predict what will happen in the NBA over the next year. What if Love has the opportunity to go play with his friend Russell Westbrook alongside Durant in Oklahoma City? What if the Wolves generate sufficient momentum and Saunders reworks the roster enough to make Minnesota formidable in the next six months? Who knows who might get hurt, or hired, or traded, in a manner that alters the equation on Love’s future? Nobody — including Kevin Love.
Loyalty and loss-cutting
That said, there are certain junctures in this process that can trigger intentions and even sever relationships. One of them is the annual NBA trading deadline, which came and went on Thursday. Once again it is a time when the gossip flows like lava and agendas are being pursued with surreptitious aggression. But precisely because there is a cut-off point — the deadline — when the bets are called and folks have to show their cards, the chatter tends to be more credible.
Parsing the tea leaves on what was rumored the Wolves were doing and what they actually did, my initial conclusion is that no news is good news.
First of all, the Wolves seem to have made absolutely no attempt to foster or otherwise entertain any trade involving Love. In other words, they did not embrace the line of logic that says they will ultimately be unable to prevent Love from leaving, so better to strike now, when they have the most leverage on his valuable services and thus can fetch the largest bounty in a trade.
This is smart for a number of reasons. First, it is very difficult, if not impossible, to get appropriate value in a trade for a legitimate superstar. Second, such a trade is most strategically sound if you are tearing your roster down to the studs, and starting over with copious draft picks and salary cap space. With a number of high-priced assets newly on the books—Pekovic, Martin, Brewer and Budinger all signed contracts last summer that, at their discretion, can extend through the 2015-16 season at a cost of $29 million — the Wolves are not even remotely in a position to pursue that route. (Pek and Martin are still around in 2016-17 for a combined $19 million.)
Third, the market simply can’t stomach another major rebuilding project. I know that, even with Love and the early-season promise of a playoff team, the Wolves currently rank among the bottom five teams in per-game attendance. But there is a hardcore fan base that is sophisticated and well-informed. Believe it or not, after 25 seasons of sub-.400 basketball (the franchise won-lost percentage is exactly 39.9) and a nine-year (and counting) absence from the playoffs, their patience and faith in the current regime are not sufficient to sustain another re-do.
The other hopeful thing about the trading deadline chatter and fallout is that Wolves’ management tried to be active but didn’t stoop to desperation. If you believe the consensus of the insiders, Saunders tried to trade for lanky, defensive-oriented swingmen, including Tayshaun Prince and Tony Allen from Memphis and Evan Turner from Philadelphia. The Wolves also reportedly were in the hunt for backup point guard Andre Miller of Denver.
All of these players have elements to their game that would have addressed weaknesses on the Wolves roster, but the counterproposals from other teams would have asked for too much in return. (Turner and Miller were eventually dealt for packages that were better than the Wolves could and should have offered.)
On the down side, this means that the Wolves have precious few trading assets beyond their core of Love, Pekovic, Rubio and Martin. They are thus in the unenviable position of having to register their most significant improvements from within, with Rubio’s shooting prowess, the return to good health for Budinger, and Love’s defense being the most likely potential upgrades. For a team currently ranked 10th in a rugged Western Conference, that’s a sobering state of affairs.
What this means is that Kevin Love is in the driver’s seat — I would say he is the tail that wags the dog, but that is giving his current status too little credit. When the Wolves faced a similar situation with Kevin Garnett, management allowed him a say in personnel matters, with mostly disastrous results. In addition, front-office mistakes were made in an effort to surround KG with kindred, complementary players, most notably Kevin McHale’s sacrifice of Sam Cassell and a first-round draft pick for Marko Jaric.
To the extent that Love wants long-term contracts for mediocre teammates, as Garnett did for Troy Hudson, Trenton Hassell and Mike James, among others, the Wolves need to say no. But one of the few perks that can be afforded a superstar is influence over personnel matters, and the Wolves are in a position where they are more damned if Love leaves than they are if Love stays. Thus, if coach Rick Adelman does indeed decide he is too old to continue trying to reverse the Wolves’ tenacious dysfunction, Love needs a strong say on Adelman’s replacement. And so forth.
It is the best of a bad situation. On the other hand, if you watched Kevin Love on Wednesday night against Indiana, it is a nice feeling to contemplate having him around for another 110 games or so.
So, what do they do then?
Moving Pekovic seems like the answer. It’s not because I don’t like Pek. To the contrary, I think he’s the 7th best center in the league. But for this team to add anything significant they’re going to have to give something significant. Outside of Rubio and Love, Pek is the only player they have that fits the bill. The team has looked so much more defensively competent with Turiaf playing alongside Love that if Pek could be packaged for a defensive big (an Omer Asik type?) and a wing who can actually play a bit on on both ends of the court I’d be hard pressed not to do it.
Even still, there are potential long term problems with that idea.
1. By all accounts, Love really likes Pek and dealing him could work directly against the point Brit made about having influence over personnel being a perk.
2. If Love does leave in a year or so we could really regret giving Pek up for a lesser role player.
What do you think? Am I way off in my thinking?
We think alike
I have moved through the mental gears of your first paragraph many times, only to be stopped short by the two points in your second paragraph. So if you’re way off, I’m way off.
Only quibble I would have is that I’m sure not Pek could fetch both Asik and a capable wing; and that Asik is really terrible with the basketball and with Brewer and Turiaf the Wolves quickly reach a critical mass on that–and I do mean critical.
Basic dilemma holds though: Love and Pek are not as ideal as hoped, especially on defense. But if you lose both of them it is a monumental failure–and disturbingly easy to paint scenarios for how it happens.
I agree with the idea that Pek is easiest peice to move..
Which is why I’ve had such an issue with not getting Dieng some minutes this year. I know RA is in “win now” mode…but we should have been able to get Dieng a few minutes a night. He needs to work through his fouling issues. I think there is a lot of promise with this kid. He could potentially be the defensive center that we need to put next to Love.
Which brings us back to moving one of the big 3. I know Rubio’s shot is not good..but I think its more his attitude in regards to scoring than his actual “shot” that’s causing the problem. I believe that can be remedied and I believe he will come out of his scoring funk at some point. THat makes him far too valuable to get rid of. Martin? No one will touch him. I really think OKC had him in his right spot last year: 6th man. He disappears too much at the end of games for me. Maybe we don’t run plays for him..but we were sold a bill of goods on him (only guy who can create his own shot) and we either aren’t utilizing that talent or hes unwilling to deliver. That leaves Pek. I think that we could get a good 2 way wing by using Pek as bait. So you put a core of Love, Rubio and 2 way wing in the mix…and I think we have a more balanced roster and a better chance at moving ahead in the playoffs.
One thing we forget is that, while this season is a disappointment, we aren’t THAT far off. We’ve very rarely been blown out this year and that includes playing the best teams in the league tough. If we can add someone who isn’t afraid of having the ball in their hands at the end of the 4th quarter, and a guard that better matches what Rubio gives you (minus the insane hero ball that JJ gives you) I think we have a chance to make some noise.
Many thoughts on this
1. The chatter around the deadline was interesting for how much national and local media differed. No one in MN believes Love is staying for sure; they just knew he wasn’t being shopped around. That translated on a national level as delusional/naive.
2. I’m torn about the general rule of not trading superstars in this case, since a package centered around a lottery pick in this draft might make sense. I had no attachment to any other player on that last KG team, but I’d have to avoid games with Love, Pek, or Rubio as the opponent. I’d rather have Love here for a long time, but it’d also be rough watching the remaining guys without him and no compensation for losing him, the same way it was when the Shaq left the Magic.
I never wanted them to trade KG, but they wouldn’t have been in position to draft Love without that trade (though that was a deep draft and they got Pek with a pick from Miami). The often-blind squirrels who’ve made up past front offices were still able to find at least one nut. Also, they had a lot of long-term deals when KG was traded that they were able to get rid of quickly (Blount, Davis, Jaric, Hassell, James), and there’d be a much stronger market for the big $ guys they have now.
3. The value of some guys will change a bit once those guys (Barea, Mbah a Moute, Shved, and Turiaf) are expiring deals. This year, that only applied to Cunningham. It’d be nice if they could avoid giving away any more picks; they have a small surplus of 2nds but have had a conditional 1st hanging over them every year since 2005.
4. Too much of this has been devoted to things other than Love’s great game. He’d struggled so often vs. West, which made the output that much more impressive. People watch the NBA instead of college because of games like that and players like him. It was interesting how the Pacers, a team who seems to play physically, not complain, and compels respect due to that, resorted to the types of tactics everyone accuses the Wolves of doing (Barea, for example, has drastically cut back on his flopping).
Many good thoughts too
PSR–I’ll take them as they come.
1–Not sure the national media isn’t trapped in a herd mentality, especially when it comes to small market Midwestern teams. They don’t know the landscape and often don’t want to, at peril to their reputations.
2–You’d have to assume the Wolves would scout and draft well for this to make sense, and I’m not sure I can make that leap after Kahn’s debacles and Flip’s meager haul the past few drafts. Agree about developing affection for the current roster, although their lack of character as a team entity erodes that somewhat.
3–I think the new CBA has diminished the value of expirings to some extent–most GMs have done their prior due diligence so as not to be burned by the luxury tax. That said, you are right that the Wolves will have their fair share next season–and guys who can play a little bit while they expire–if the right team comes along.
4–Couldn’t agree more about how too many people obsess about intrigue and don’t bother to actually watch and enjoy the games. Reminds me of political coverage, so often consumed by the horse race rather than the stands on the issues.
This is as good a time as any to add that I can still envision a scenario where Love agrees to a sign-and-trade that enables the Wolves to stay competitive while losing their superstar. My personal favorite deal is Love and a $2-4M player to OKC in exchange for Ibaka, Lamb, Jackson and a number one pick. OKC gets Love on a 5-year extension (which they can’t do themselves because they gave it to Westbrook), Love gets the higher, original-team rate on the max, and the Wolves get a defensive rim protecting power forward who meshes beautifully with Pek, an outside shooter in Lamb, a confident scoring point in Jackson to back up Rubio and another asset in the draft. OKC, of course, gets a Durant-Westbrook-Love big three, and the ability to piece in Steven Adams and the inevitable free agents who would take a discount to join that roster.
A couple of quick things
I should clarify: my affection is only for Rubio and Pek. Everyone else fits in the same category as most non-KG ex-Wolves: I like a few more than others, but how much I’d miss them would have more to do with what the team got in return.
Also, the new CBA states that a max deal for a sign and trade is exactly the same as a max deal for a guy signing outright with another team (only 4 years, 4.5% raises). The OKC idea gets floated out there some, but with the exception of Ibaka (who is also somewhat overrated), I’d be concerned about how good any of those guys would be away from Durant (none of the others are close to James Harden’s talent level). Unless Chicago ends up in the top 3 and would be willing to include that pick with Jimmy Butler and some sweeteners (they have some nice future considerations from other teams) for likely taking on Carlos Boozer’s deal, any trade would probably need to involve multiple teams like Orlando did in the Howard trade. Taking back future #1s from any team getting Love wouldn’t be a good deal.
This is making me feel dirty for even discussing a team without him on it.
Love to OKC…
I have been a season ticket holder for almost 10 years. If they traded Love to OKC I would be done in a heartbeat. Why would you trade Love to a team that you will have to go through each year to get to your goal? I’d rather get less and give him to someone else. (other than the Lakers).
Trading for picks works in the NFL, where there are bona fide good players deep into the draft, but not in the NBA, where the vast majority of players never pan out.