The maturation of Anthony Edwards

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From the trampolines in his hamstrings to the glint in his grin, Anthony Edwards has always been a loud presence that sweeps you into the lingering sway of his buzz.

The things Ant has already done on a basketball court will be recounted over oatmeal, complete with geriatric gesticulations, in nursing home dining rooms through the last third of this century.

But in the first chapters of this storybook 2023-24 NBA season, Ant has also begun to master the whispering of greatness, readily capable of modulating the volume of his feats down from goosebump-inducing arias into the dulcet harmonies of teamwork.

Ant has produced broad improvements in his overall game in each of his four NBA seasons. But the nature of his transformation thus far this season – from spectacular young athlete on the cusp of stardom into the most consequential catalyst for the best six-week start in the 35-year history of his Minnesota Timberwolves – has been the most difficult and extraordinary leap of his brief career. And the most surprising.

The book on Ant coming into this season was that he was almost inevitably going to become one of the top 10 or 15 players in the league, but at age 22 there was a lot of maturity left for his ascension, mostly surrounding his attention to detail. Not only did he have to learn to sweat the small stuff, but he had recognize what specific type of small stuff could become invaluable caulk and glue in the fabric of teamwork, then utilize it effectively.

This season, people still flock to see Ant for the moments of loudness that can resonate for decades – the dunks, the chase-down blocks, the air-tight defense against a formidable opponent, the deluge of buckets from both long-range and in the painted area that spins the scoreboard like a pinball game. But now people are also flocking to see the Minnesota Timberwolves because, more than anybody, Ant is whispering as well as booming them into a winner.

The NBA has one of those cobbled analytical statistics dubbed player impact estimate, or PIE, that takes each element of the box score and determines what percentage of the events each player has contributed on behalf of their team. Over the course of the season, it is a metric of some integrity – MVP candidates are almost always near the top of the list. As of Wednesday morning, the top five in PIE were Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Joel Embiid, Luka Doncic and Devin Booker. Ant, who was 62^nd in PIE last season, is currently 17^th.

But this ranking sorely underrates Ant’s positive “impact” on the fortunes of his team. To see why this is so, let’s take an admittedly cruder measure, albeit one that involves a fair bit of data and calculation. It blends two statistics. One is “net rating” – the amount of points scored per possession by the player’s team when he is on the court, minus the amount of points the team allowed per possession by the team when he is playing. The second is on/off, which calculates how a team fares in terms of net rating when a player sits (is “off” the court) as well as well he plays “on” the court. Put them together and you have what we’ll call a “net on/off rating.”

By this measure, Edwards has the most positive impact on his team of anybody in the NBA that has logged at least 500 possessions thus far this season.

In the 597 minutes Ant has been on the court during the Wolves first 17 games this season, the team has scored 116.7 points per 100 possessions and yielded just 104.6 points per 100 possessions, for a net rating of plus 12. (For comparison, Jaden McDaniels is second with a plus 9.4 net rating and Karl-Anthony Towns is third at plus 9.3.) In the 224 minutes Ant has not played this season, the Wolves have scored 99.8 points per 100 possessions and allowed 108.3 points per 100 possessions, for a net rating of minus 8.5. Compute the plus 12 Ant is on the court to the minus 8.5 is off the court and his on/off impact is plus 20.5 per 100 possessions. (The measure of 100 possessions is the yardstick because if approximates the number involved in a single game.)

None of the 16 players above Ant on the PIE ranking exert as much positive impact for their respective teams. The closest are Lebron James (9^th in PIE) of the Los Angeles Lakers at plus 18.8 differential in on/off net rating, and Devin Booker (4^th in PIE) of the Phoenix Suns at plus 18.7.

In my opinion, what gives this particular calculation validity is that it is measuring not only how much a team is boosted when the player is on the court, but how much the player is missed when he goes to the bench. And Ant’s impact is profoundly apparent both ways.

On defense, Ant is more than just an innocent bystander for a Wolves team that allows the fewest points per possession in the NBA. When he is on the court, the team’s net rating gets significantly better, shaving two points off its overall 106.6 points permitted per 100 possessions. And when he is off, the team slips to 108.3 points allowed, which would drop them to fourth overall in the NBA. But it is on offense where the value of Ant is most dramatic. When he plays, the Wolves rack up 116.7 points per 100 possessions, which would be good for the ninth best offensive rating in the NBA. But the Wolves currently rank 14^th because when Ant sits, they manage a paltry 99.8 points, a whopping 5.3 points per 100 possessions fewer than the worst offensive rating in the NBA, posted by the Portland Trailblazers.

Impressive numbers, sure. Yet the most significant and laudatory aspect of all this is team success. Ant isn’t standing out on a mediocre roster. He is carrying a team that currently sports the second-highest winning percent in the 30-team NBA. Only the Celtics, with a record of 14-4 (whom the Wolves have beaten, largely due to Ant’s heroics on both sides of the ball, in their only meeting) has a better mark than Minnesota’s 13-4, as of Thursday morning.

Back on Oct. 24, I wrote a Timberwolves season preview that included four questions that I felt would be especially pertinent to the team’s fortunes in the 2023-24 campaign. One of them was, “Will Ant’s next leap include upgrading some of the subtle but damaging flaws in his game?” Among the flaws mentioned was a lack of sustained concentration when he wasn’t guarding the man with the ball on defense or getting back to defend in transition; rebounding, and shot selection.

The short answer to my question is “Yes.” When the difference between one’s presence and one’s absence on the court is more than 20 points per 100 possessions, whatever flaws you reveal aren’t that damaging anymore, eh?

Yes, some things can be measured. Before this season, the fewest points the Wolves allowed per 100 possessions when Ant was on the court was 110.6 two seasons ago. Thus far this year it is 104.6 – a huge improvement. OK, but hasn’t the resurrection of Rudy Gobert and the steady hand of veterans like Mike Conley and Kyle Anderson – plus the more active schemes of coach Chris Finch – had a lot to do with that better team performance? Sure, but the positive differential between how the Wolves defend with Ant on the court versus off the court has never been greater – because his increased focus, desire, and recognition of defensive cues and fundamentals have never been better.

An even easier rebuttal is to simply state that the Wolves have a better defensive rating when Ant is on the court than with any other member of the starting lineup.

On offense, Ant has not sacrificed efficiency for volume. He is shooting more frequently and more accurately than ever before in his career. He is getting to the free throw line – a specific priority from Finch at the start of the season – more than ever, and making 86.4% of them (his previous career best was 78.6%). He is grabbing more rebounds (another Finch priority) and doling out more assists, with a better assist-to-turnover ratio, than ever before. Even the statistics that have dipped, like his steals and blocks, are the result of less gambling and more loyal rotations hewing to that night’s defensive game plan.

Ant did not have one of his better games when the Oklahoma City Thunder came in to Target Center on Tuesday night hoping to tie Minnesota for the best record in the Western Conference. As happens with any top scorer, the Thunder threw a variety of defensive wrinkles at him, starting with Lu Dort, a 220-pound block of human tungsten who defends with a brutish simplicity kindred to his name.

Ant was frustrated – he made just one of three shots while playing the entire first quarter that finished with the Wolves down 10. But late in the period he drove the length of the court with two Thunder defenders determined to squelch him, zipping a pass out to the corner for a wide open trey by Naz Reid. When Naz clanked it, Ant went up strong between two opponents, keeping the ball alive for Naz to retrieve, only to then miss a follow-up put-back. There was nothing about the play that put Ant on the stat sheet – no assist, rebounds, any other PIE measurement –just unrecorded grit and teamwork.

Down eight points to start the second half, Ant came out loud and on fire. He proceeded to score the Wolves first 11 points of the third period – two layups through traffic and a pair of long three-pointers and a free throw sandwiched around a missed midrange jumper – to tie the score in seven-and-a-half minutes.

“It turned the game around for us,” Finch said after the Wolves had won 106-103. “It was hard to get a rhythm off them offensively. That is the beauty of a guy like Ant, who can create his own offense. Tonight was an opportunity where we needed that.”

In the third quarter, he fell hard on a dunk attempt and eventually had to leave the game with painful hip contusion, reminiscent of a similar injury against Milwaukee last season. Although this one may sideline him for a game or two, he was in his typically good spirits bantering with Conley in the locker room.

It’s another place Ant excels that isn’t revealed by the numbers. He has attached himself to Conley since the sage veteran arrived at the trade deadline in February. According to Conley, much of the discussion revolves around how to be a playmaker – what angles, court vision, moves and countermoves are required to distribute the ball under the best possible circumstances. “He be a point guard yet,” Conley said in joking fashion, but with a sincere conclusion.

As of now, the Wolves will settle for team leader, and the type of player who gets others open with his gravity and then gets them the ball wide open, whether they are struggling with a shot like Shake Milton, or are readily accepted as a team-leader peer, like Towns. The Minnesota Timberwolves are operating with an abundance and faith and soul, and Ant is whispering the catechism.