Caitlin Clark or Paige Bueckers in a Minnesota Lynx uniform? Keep dreaming

Caitlin Clark. Paige Bueckers.

Even casual college basketball fans know who they are – one the charismatic all-everything point guard for NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament runner-up Iowa, the other the Minnesota-born-and-raised floor general for 11-time national champion UConn.

With the Minnesota Lynx badly in need of a dynamic playmaker, their fans would give anything to see either one in their favorite team’s uniform. That’s a proposition unlikely to happen this season, maybe ever. Even if Clark and Bueckers declare for April’s WNBA draft, which isn’t a certainly (more on that later), both are expected to go quickly in the first round, long before Minnesota’s turn with the seventh pick.

So in a recent conversation with Cheryl Reeve, Lynx President of Basketball Operations and head coach, we revisited the controversial notion of “tanking,” i.e. a team deliberately fielding a less-than-competitive roster and taking its lumps in the hope of landing a high draft pick. (The 2013-14 Philadelphia 76ers normalized this strategy as “The Process.” We’re still waiting for it to produce an NBA title.)

With WNBA free agency approaching later this month, it’s worth asking: Did the Lynx screw up by playing it straight and trying to win? Six seasons removed from the most recent of their four WNBA titles, the 19-21 2023 Lynx persevered through a 0-6 start and multiple injuries to make the playoffs, losing a first-round series to Connecticut. But was it worth it?

Absolutely.

Here’s the thing: Even if Reeve and her staff held their collective noses, signed a bunch of backups and watched them lose night after night, there’s no guarantee the strategy would have brought Clark or Bueckers to Minneapolis.

The WNBA uses two-year aggregate records to determine draft order, meant to discourage tanking. A 14-22 finish in 2022 left the Lynx nine games behind Indiana (5-31) in the race for the worst record. It would have had taken a historically horrible 2023 season for the Lynx to slip below the young Fever, who stumbled home 13-27.

Even if everything fell “right” for the Lynx, what would it get them? A spot in the draft lottery and the maximum number of balls in the drawing for the No. 1 pick. Nothing more. Plus, what if Clark or Bueckers decided to take advantage of their COVID seasons and stay in college for 2024-25? Then the Lynx would have gone through all these gyrations for nothing.

To Reeve, if the Lynx tried their best and still stunk, so be it. But deliberately trying to lose? Not acceptable to anyone, from ownership on down.

“All the variables you mentioned, you can sit down and go, sure, OK, let’s tank,” Reeve said. “That’s not a guarantee you’re going to get the No. 1 pick. That’s not a guarantee that player’s coming out. There’s not a guarantee of this, that or the other. That’s why I say I believe in these things naturally occurring if that’s supposed to happen.

“In 2010, when we were in the lottery, don’t you think Maya Moore was a player people would have tried to tank for? Do you know how badly we wanted to be in the playoffs in 2010? And so we tried all the way to the end. We were a non-playoff team, but we got lucky in the lottery. We weren’t the worst team in the league (they were second-worst, tied with Los Angeles at 13-21), but we ended up with the No. 1 pick. I believe in that. I believe in, that’s supposed to happen.”

Instead, the Lynx spent the first season after future Hall of Famer Sylvia Fowles’ retirement developing their young core players. Adjusting to a new perimeter-based offense without a low-post option took time. But by season’s end, several important players had taken big strides.

Forward Napheesa Collier returned from childbirth to become a transcendent star, averaging 21.5 points per game, finishing fourth in the MVP balloting, making the All-WNBA First Team and All-Defensive second team.

“If that doesn’t happen, maybe we’re in the lottery,” Reeve said. “That’s a big-time success story for Phee (Collier). And to do it coming off the challenges after childbirth … I know she’s really, really proud of herself for that.”

Guard Kayla McBride averaged 14.3 points, her best season since 2018 with Las Vegas, then signed a two-year contract extension to remain with the Lynx. Draft picks Diamond Miller (12.1 points, 3.5 rebounds) and Dorka Juhász (6.0 pts, 6.5 rebounds) established themselves as productive players with room to improve.

(One troublesome development: Miller injured her right knee playing overseas in Hungary and needed arthroscopic surgery. It’s the same knee Miller had surgery on before her final season at Maryland. Reeve said Miller is rehabbing stateside.)

“When you look at Diamond’s rookie season, while she had some successful moments, I think she would look at it and go, `God, I’m so much better than this, I’ve got so much more to do,’” Reeve said. “We’ve showed her other players that are now great players that their rookie seasons weren’t what they wanted to be. Candace Parker (the league MVP as a rookie in 2008) is a rare one.”

Going into free agency and the draft, the Lynx need a point guard and another post player. They have six players under contract for 2024, per the website herhoopstats.com Collier, McBride, Miller, Juhász, guard Tiffany Mitchell and forward Jessica Shepard. The Lynx also retain the rights for valuable reserve forward Nina Milić.

Lindsay Allen, Reeve’s most reliable point guard last season, is an unrestricted free agent. So are Rachel Banham, Bridget Carleton, Aerial Powers and Natalie Achonwa. Powers, who rarely left the bench late in the season, and Achonwa, out all season due to pregnancy and childbirth, probably won’t be back.

Expect the Lynx to sign a serviceable point guard in free agency. Teams can begin negotiations Jan. 21, with signings commencing Feb. 1. With the WNBA collective bargaining agreement expiring after the 2025 season, don’t expect any free agent to sign for more than two years.

Skylar Diggins-Smith is the best point guard out there, though Chicago seems a likely destination. (She’s from South Bend, Indiana, about 90 miles east.) The Lynx could simply bring back Allen, who missed the last 10 games plus the playoffs with a broken thumb, forcing Reeve to play Mitchell out of position.

“Last year was the roughest year at the spot for us since Lindsay (Whalen’s) retirement,” Reeve said. “It’s a position in our league that’s not a strong one right now … It’s not a strong suit of our team, but neither is it for nine teams. So it’s not like we’re going to get clobbered every night at that position, which is important.

“When you say we need a point guard, I think what you’re speaking to is a generational point guard. They just don’t grow on trees. Serviceable, that’s been our way, and we’ll continue to do that.”

The Lynx finished last season with four post players (Collier, Shepard, Milić and Juhász), and Reeve prefers to add a fifth in a post-heavy draft. Reeve loves players from UConn; they’re tough, smart and know better than most how to navigate defenses that take away their strengths. UConn’s 6-3 Aaliyah Edwards would be optimal if she’s still around at No. 7. If not, South Carolina’s 6-7 Kamilla Cardoso or Tennessee’s 6-2 Rickea Jackson could be intriguing. (Kansas State’s 6-6 Ayoka Lee, the Byron, MN product, projects as a second-round pick.)

“We look at post depth in every draft,” Reeve said. “When you’re picking seventh, you may get yourself (someone who can be) a starter at some point. You’re probably getting somebody who is, maybe at worst, a reserve player in this league with great value who can eventually start.”

Wherever Clark and Bueckers end up, maybe the Lynx will get lucky and one or the other will ask to be traded to Minnesota in a few years. (Clark grew up a fan of Moore and the Lynx.) That’s how former GM Roger Griffin acquired Whalen from Connecticut in 2010, setting up all the success that followed. It’s certainly a more palatable option than what the 76ers did a decade ago.

“Offended is not the right word, but I don’t know how practical it is, the whole tanking thing,” Reeve said. “It’s just so rampant in every sport because it’s maybe what (fans) think people do. I don’t know. It’s really fascinating to me, because it wasn’t the case even five years ago.”