It’s been a long while since we’ve had a Timberwolves mailbag here at MinnPost. And as we lean into the last 10 games of what has indisputably been one of the two greatest seasons in the 35-year history of the franchise, there is a lot to talk about.
I posted a request for questions with the suddenness of a snap quiz on Tuesday, for a Wednesday deadline, and the response was rewarding. Not surprisingly, much of the focus was on the team’s play in the absence of Karl-Anthony Towns (sidelined for at least the rest of the regular season with a knee injury) and how his return might affect performance in the playoffs. With just 10 games left in the regular season after Wednesday night’s contest against Detroit, possible playoff matchups – especially concerning the Pelicans’ mammoth forward Zion Williamson – were also on your mind.
So, let’s get to it.
How does (Wolves Coach Chris) Finch navigate KAT’s return if the team continues the positive trends they’ve displayed in his absence (turnovers, spacing, matchup flexibility)? – Black Sea Capital @CSupercycle
I can’t decide how I feel about KAT returning prior to the playoffs. His play this year was exemplary and I’m impressed with how he accepted his new role and flourished in the little things. But I’m also thrilled with the way players are gelling now. What are your thoughts? – Stefan Kling @stefanmkling
What are your thoughts on the spacing with KAT and without KAT? – The Magic SKOL Bus @MagicSKOLBus2
When/if KAT comes back, could bringing him off the bench be a better move than just inserting him into the starting lineup? – Ashenan @Ashenan
First off, KAT won’t return prior to the playoffs. Surgery on the torn meniscus in his left knee occurred March 12. He reportedly will be reevaluated four weeks from then, which would be April 9, five days before the end of the regular season. The risks far outweigh any potential rewards from rushing him back.
The polarity of opinion over KAT’s value is never going to vanish. It’s a theme whether the team is among the dregs or the elite of the Western Conference. The debate persists because there is ample ammunition on both sides of the argument.
The first questioner is correct about the “positive trends” taking place in KAT’s absence. Comparing the first 62 games prior to his injury to the nine he has missed since then (the Detroit game on Wednesday isn’t counted), the Wolves are moving the ball much more efficiently, mostly due to a significant decrease in turnovers. Their turnover ratio has gone from 24th to fifth and their assist-to-turnover ratio moved from 23rd to seventh.
That’s borne out from the eye test. The most aggravating aspect of this mostly splendid season has been the long stretches of play where KAT and Anthony Edwards seem to take turns challenging multiple defenders ready to stop them rather than moving the ball and moving without the ball.
With KAT out, Finch has indeed been able to tweak his matchups to better exploit the weaknesses and blunt the strengths of the opponent. Kyle “Slo Mo” Anderson, Naz Reid and Nickeil Alexander-Walker (NAW) each alter the personality of the other four starters with their distinctive skill sets. Naz most closely resembles KAT except his defensive acumen is now the midrange-to-perimeter instead of the paint. On offense, he makes quicker decisions and moves better and more frequently away from the ball. Slo Mo is a superior defender (both on and off the ball) and playmaker, but a worrisome shot-taker. NAW provides more perimeter quickness and coverage against small-ball lineups.
Furthermore, flexing the starting lineup has enabled Finch to vary his bench units and he has been leaning into lineups with multiple point guards on the floor for quicker but wiser decisions and better ball movement. It also enables Slo Mo to operate as a second or third point guard out of the power forward position, the ideal role for him on this team.
Without KAT in the rotation, the team’s speed, overall movement, and pinpoint lineup changes all rise, enhancing the aesthetic pleasure of the game. But the numbers reveal where KAT is missed, and why the good times without him might not sustain.
The Wolves are doing a very good job of compensating for the absence of KAT’s three-level scoring – at least in the most noticeable area of three-point shooting. The team’s frequency and accuracy of three-pointers has actually risen, from 25th in the NBA to 12th in the number of attempts, and from 38.9% to 39.3% in in made treys.
Finch appropriately credits spacing and sharing the ball for this. But are we expecting Jordan McLaughlin to continue shooting 61.9% (13-for-21) from long-range? Or for Naz to sustain his 47.9% shooting (28-for-59) from deep? NAW has splashed 41% of his treys since KAT went down, and Monte Morris is at 54.5% on fewer attempts. Will that last?
Meanwhile, the accuracy on two-pointers has dropped from 54.1% to 51.4% and the area where KAT seems to be missed the most thus far is at the free throw line. Before the injury, the Wolves ranked seventh in free throw attempts and 12th in accuracy. Since then, they are 25th in attempts and 29th in accuracy. That’s what happens when a teammate who gets to the line a wisp under five times per game and makes 87.4% of them goes missing from the lineup.
This is all fun with numbers and ignores what could be footnotes in small samples sizes. For example, the “greater spacing” argument since KAT went down, needs to consider that Rudy Gobert has missed four of the nine games in the sample and Rudy has an even larger impact on clogged spacing. On the other hand, the Wolves dip in defensive efficiency (from first to a tie for eighth) since KAT was sidelined isn’t missing KAT at that end of the court, it is missing Rudy for nearly half those games.
The premature return of KAT is a concern because he is prone to forcing the game and not letting it come to him, a tendency that will be especially harmful if he’s rusty. I wouldn’t bring him off the bench – too many political reverberations for that – but I’d bring him along slowly.
Because make no mistake – the Western Conference is 11 teams deep with the recent surge by Houston and the playoffs will be rugged, with precious little margin for error. Since the All Star break the Wolves are 11th in net rating (points scored per possession minus points allowed per possession) and sixth among Western Conference teams. Since KAT went down they are 10th in net rating and seventh in the West.
Which brings us to a batch of playoff-related questions.
As Mike (Conley) goes, so go the Wolves. Which playoff matchups are the worst for Mike? – John @TweetsOnTheCan
Oklahoma City would certainly be one of the opponents against whom he has struggled. The Thunder allow the lowest opposing field goal percentage at the rim in the NBA and Conley is an atrocious 1-9 from two-point range in the three games he has played against them – he’s also a subpar 9-26 (34.6%) from distance and hasn’t earned a free throw. The Thunder’s offense concentrates on pick-and-roll from their wings and backcourt as well as drive-and-kick actions. Both can tax and bully a player of Conley’s size.
On the plus side, Conley is aces against Dallas, a foe who the Wolves could see in the first round.
Set aside matchups, since that is weeks from being set. What does this version of the team, minus KAT, do well that portends a deep playoff run? Conversely, if not changed, what will lead to being bounced in the first round? – Scott Radzak @Radman_50
The Wolves have a postseason ace-in-hole, which is the best defense in the NBA over the course of the season, with on-ball defense a special strength. This is crucial against potential star-laden playoff opponents such as Phoenix, Dallas, the Lakers and Golden State.
Finch will have to juggle a bit to blend his best offensive and defensive units. SloMo is the best on-ball defender of larger wings, while Naz has become adept at guarding small forwards. In the backcourt, NAW and Monte Morris have both been superb and J-Mac (McLaughlin) is playing at a career peak.
Conversely, the Wolves are vulnerable if they get in a track meet or if they wait to assert their physicality. Sacramento is a tough opponent because Domantas Sabonis keeps Gobert so occupied and their pace allows their three-point shooters and transition runners to flourish. The team I fear the most for Minnesota is New Orleans. Mostly because despite all their terrific defenders there is no good matchup for Zion Williams.
Last but hardly least, the Wolves’ second ace is a postseason phenom named Ant. He genuinely craves the pressure and elevates his game in big moments. That is an extraordinary, but necessary, x-factor for any team with championship aspirations.
I am wondering how the Wolves work on a defense for Zion if they meet the Pelicans in the playoffs. It seems to me Naz might be a good physical matchup for him. – BlueHenTerp @TerpHen
In your opinion, have there been any developments since the last (New Orleans) game, which was before the trade deadline, to indicate there are any new tactics to win a series against them? Are you confident of success in the first round for the Wolves? Hopeful? Pensive? Doubtful? Why? – Ashley @nal9313
Do we need to sign someone to guard Zion? – Kris Kooiman @KumaKrisKun
It’s possible that one or more of these queries was goaded by my recent comments on the podcast with Dane Moore in which I said the Pelicans are the Wolves toughest matchup – even tougher than Denver – in large part because there is no good matchup for Zion.
The Wolves won the first two games between the games when Zion was out with injuries. In the next two, he steamrolled Minnesota’s defense and the Pelicans won both with relative ease.
I believe the slimmed-down Naz who dazzles with finesse is no match for Zion coming downhill. I believe his ability to use astounding force coming up from beneath the NBA’s genuine big men would frustrate Gobert and put him in foul trouble. Without running down the entire roster, I think the two best candidates to defend him are SloMo and Ant. SloMo is a wise, deliberate and staunch defender with a wingspan wide enough to possibly deter without fouling. Ant can raise his game to incredible heights when the challenge merits it. The most underrated virtue in his arsenal is his strength and physicality.
The problem here is that SloMo isn’t good for the offense among the other starters for long minutes, and Ant is needed to carry the load on offense. Either way, slightly negating Zion’s offense would cost the Wolves at the other end of the court.
Beyond Zion, the Pelicans have formidable balance: Great outside shooting from CJ McCullom and Tre Murphy; superb wing-stoppers in Herb Jones and Dyson Daniels; the ability to play big with Jonas Valanciunas beside Zion in the frontcourt; a capable, feisty bench led by Jose Alvarado and Larry Nance Jr.; a KAT-like, go-to scorer in Brandon Ingram (especially from midrange, a Wolves weakpoint on defense); and a terrific young coach in Willie Green.
Fortunately, the Pels are likely finish either fourth or fifth, so unless the Wolves bag the top seed in the West, they wouldn’t match up until the conference finals. That’s why I am “confident,” when “pensive” or not, on the Wolves ability to get past the first round against anyone else. Denver, OKC and New Orleans will be met past round one, if at all. Among the currently likely matchups – Dallas, Phoenix and Sacramento – I’d be most concerned about Sacramento, for the reasons stated earlier, followed by Dallas, who are playing their best ball of the season, and then the Suns.
There is more mailbag in the And One newsletter content, including questions regarding the goodness of Finch and J-Mac. Also, I will be doing a MinnPost Zoom where you can ask me questions face-to-face (virtually) from Target Center at 5:30 p.m. before the Wolves face Toronto on April 3. A link to the Zoom is here on the MinnPost site.
Britt Robson
Britt Robson has covered the Timberwolves since 1990 for City Pages, The Rake, SportsIllustrated.com and The Athletic. He also has written about all forms and styles of music for over 30 years.
