[raw]
[/raw]
Minnesota DFL Gov. Tim Walz was slightly ahead of Republican challenger Scott Jensen in a new survey by Change Research commissioned by MinnPost, suggesting a close election this fall.
The poll found that 42 percent of 1,551 likely general election voters would pick Walz, while 40 percent of those voters would favor Jensen — a result that is within a margin of error of 2.6 percent.
Many voters surveyed, however, are unfamiliar with Jensen. Only 23 percent had a favorable view of the former one-term state senator and 19 percent had an unfavorable view of Jensen. The poll found a plurality, 44 percent, had never heard of him at all.
The poll, conducted June 3 to 8, suggests voters are evenly split over Walz as governor, narrowly approving of his record on jobs but disapproving of his handling of crime in the state. Most surveyed believe Minnesota is on the wrong track, not headed in the right direction.
The survey also suggests deep unhappiness with President Joe Biden’s record on inflation — which was a top issue among voters in the poll — and an even more sour view of the direction of the nation.
“Minnesota is a ‘blue’ state, it’s maybe a light ‘blue’ state” said Christopher Chapp, a political science professor at St. Olaf College in Northfield. “But in an electoral environment that most analysts do not see as very favorable to Democrats, Minnesota is going to be competitive for all statewide offices.”
Voters evenly split on Walz’s job performance
Jensen, a family physician from Chaska, recently cleared the GOP primary field of significant opposition by winning the Republican endorsement at a statewide convention in May. He’s likely to face Walz in the November general election.
Jensen rose to greater prominence, especially among the Republican base, in part by questioning COVID-19 regulations imposed by Walz and pandemic science such as the safety of vaccines. At times he has spread false theories.
So far, the poll suggests the governor’s race will be competitive.
Walz’s two-point lead is also the same as in an August 2021 survey, when voters were asked to rank the governor against a generic unnamed Republican.
[image_credit]MinnPost photo by Peter Callaghan[/image_credit][image_caption]Scott Jensen recently cleared the GOP primary field of significant opposition by winning the Republican endorsement at a statewide convention in May.[/image_caption]
Another 7 percent were unsure of who they would vote for, suggesting many voters are up for grabs.
[raw]
[/raw]
Those who responded to the poll were evenly split on Walz’s job performance; 50 percent either strongly or somewhat approved of the job Walz is doing, while 50 percent either strongly or somewhat disapproved of the governor. These results matched the August survey. A small majority of voters approve of Walz’s record on jobs, while just a small majority disapprove of the governor’s record on COVID-19.
And voters in the electorally crucial Twin Cities suburbs, outside the cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul, still favored Walz by a 39-38 margin.
Still, 64 percent of voters surveyed either strongly disapproved or somewhat disapproved of Walz’s handling of crime. And a majority of voters had either an unfavorable or neutral view of the governor.
One result potentially in Jensen’s favor is that 59 percent of those who responded said they believe Minnesota is on the wrong track, rather than going in the right direction. That’s largely unchanged from an August poll and a friendlier picture than voter view of the country as a whole.
Chapp said voters increasingly use national conditions to evaluate races up and down the ballot. But he said it would “buck that trend” if there’s “a little bit of a de-tethering” between Walz and Biden’s approval numbers and views on whether the state and country are headed in the right direction.
Jensen, and Republicans generally, have criticized the governor’s response to crime and Jensen outlined a plan Thursday to address crime in Minnesota. He has also proposed a state gas tax holiday, an idea that Walz has also supported.
Walz and legislative leaders couldn’t reach agreements on public safety spending this year. The governor had initially proposed $300 million for local governments to use on public safety, including for hiring more cops. DFL leaders also wanted some money for community nonprofits that do violence intervention work.
Minnesotans unhappy with inflation, Biden
Walz’s standing in June may be similar to last fall. But the poll suggests Minnesota voters are increasingly unhappy with the direction of the country under Biden, who won the state in 2020 by a comfortable 7-point margin over Trump.
Of the likely voters surveyed, 79 percent said the country is on the wrong track. Only 21 percent said the U.S. is headed in the right direction. The August survey had found 69 percent of respondents viewed the country as on the wrong track.
[raw]
[/raw]
[raw]
[/raw]
In the June poll, only 36 percent said they had a somewhat favorable or very favorable view of Biden, compared to 55 percent who had a somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable view of the president.
And 59 percent of people in the poll somewhat or strongly disapproved of Biden’s performance. The likely voters surveyed had a more favorable view of Biden’s record on the pandemic: 48 percent approved. But on inflation, a whopping 70 percent disapproved of Biden’s performance.
The poll found 46 percent approved of the president’s handling of jobs and a similar share of people viewed Biden’s record on Ukraine favorably.
MinnPost asked the likely voters in the poll an open-ended question about what their top issues are statewide and locally. In the August survey, inflation was mentioned only 22 times. In June, it was the most common answer, coming up 252 times. Guns and abortion also came up more often than in the poll last fall.
The poll found higher gas prices have been difficult for 59 percent of respondents, while another 35 percent said fuel costs are an inconvenience. The survey says grocery costs have been difficult for 51 percent of people.
People tend to “vote with their pocketbooks,” Chapp said. “Right now inflation, the cost of goods, is the main thing that’s on voters’ minds, I think particularly gas prices.”
Still, likely voters in the poll didn’t have a rosy assessment of Trump either. Fifty-six percent of respondents said they had an unfavorable view of the former president, a hair more than 55 percent who had an unfavorable view of Biden.
Of those who responded to the poll, 49 percent said they voted for Biden in 2020 and 42 percent said they voted for Trump. About 60 percent said Biden got more votes nationwide for president — which he did — and 40 percent said they believe Trump had more votes.
Tight race for attorney general
The race for Minnesota attorney general is also extremely close, according to the poll.
One-term incumbent Keith Ellison is narrowly trailing GOP-endorsed candidate Jim Schultz among poll respondents by one point, which is also within the margin of error and a statistical tie.
[raw]
[/raw]
Ellison fared only slightly better in the poll against Republican Doug Wardlow, who is challenging Schultz in a primary election despite opposition from much of the GOP establishment. Ellison was tied against Wardlow 44-44, with 9 percent of voters saying they were unsure. Ellison beat Wardlow in the 2018 election by fewer than 4 points.
About 7 to 8 percent of those who plan to support Walz are undecided in the attorney general’s race, according to Change Research, giving Ellison a potential path to 50 percent.
[cms_ad:x104]
Republican voters in the poll were largely undecided between Schultz and Wardlow. The survey says 55 percent were not sure of how they’d vote in a GOP primary, while 20 percent picked Schultz and 19 favored Wardlow.
Yet few people in the survey were familiar with either. Nearly 70 percent of likely voters in the poll said they had never heard of Schultz, and 63 percent said they hadn’t heard of Wardlow. Only 13 percent of likely voters in the poll had not heard of Ellison.
Methodology
The poll was conducted from June 3 to 8 and respondents included 1,551 likely general election voters. Change Research’s online polling methodology uses targeted social media ads and text messages to recruit respondents. The organization has a B- pollster rating from FiveThirtyEight.
The company uses a “modeled” margin of error, which it says accounts for the effects of weighting the poll (or making adjustments to better reflect the state’s demographics). The results were weighted on age, gender, race/ethnicity, 2020 vote, and region. The modeled margin of error for the statewide sample was +/- 2.6 percentage points. The modeled margin of error for regions are Minneapolis-St. Paul +/- 4.6 percent; Metro area +/- 5.4 percent; Greater Minnesota +/- 3.5 percent.
Greta Kaul contributed to this report.
[raw]
MP.highcharts.makeChart(‘.chart-gov’, $.extend(true, {}, MP.highcharts.barOptions, { legend: { enabled: false }, xAxis: { categories: [‘Tim Walz, Democratic-Farmer-Labor’,’Scott Jensen, the Republican’,’The candidate from either one of the legalize marijuana parties (Legal Marijuana Now or Grassroots Legalize Cannabis)’,’Hugh McTavish, Independence-Alliance Party’,’Not sure’,’Would not vote’]}, yAxis: { title: { text: ‘%’} }, tooltip: { formatter: function(){ return ‘ ‘ + this.x + ‘‘ + ‘: ‘ + MP.formatters.number(this.y,0) +” + ‘%’; } }, series: [
{ name: ‘%’, data: [42,40,7,3,7,2], }
]
}));
MP.highcharts.makeChart(‘.chart-rightwrong’, $.extend(true, {}, MP.highcharts.barOptions, { legend: { enabled: true }, xAxis: { categories: [‘August 2021′,’June 2022’]}, yAxis: { title: { text: ‘%’} }, tooltip: { formatter: function(){ return ‘ ‘ + this.x + ‘‘ + ‘: ‘ + MP.formatters.number(this.y,0) +” + ‘%’; } }, series: [
{ name: ‘Right direction’, data: [31,21], }, { name: ‘Wrong track’, data: [69,79], }
] }));
MP.highcharts.makeChart(‘.chart-in’, $.extend(true, {}, MP.highcharts.barOptions, { legend: { enabled: false }, xAxis: { categories: [‘Strongly approve’,’Somewhat approve’,’Somewhat disapprove’,’Strongly disapprove’]}, yAxis: { title: { text: ‘%’} }, tooltip: { formatter: function(){ return ‘ ‘ + this.x + ‘‘ + ‘: ‘ + MP.formatters.number(this.y,0) +” + ‘%’; } }, series: [
{ name: ‘%’, data: [7,23,14,57], }
] }));
MP.highcharts.makeChart(‘.chart-cov’, $.extend(true, {}, MP.highcharts.barOptions, { legend: { enabled: false }, xAxis: { categories: [‘Strongly approve’,’Somewhat approve’,’Somewhat disapprove’,’Strongly disapprove’]}, yAxis: { title: { text: ‘%’} }, tooltip: { formatter: function(){ return ‘ ‘ + this.x + ‘‘ + ‘: ‘ + MP.formatters.number(this.y,0) +” + ‘%’; } }, series: [
{ name: ‘%’, data: [31,17,11,41], }
] }));
MP.highcharts.makeChart(‘.chart-ag’, $.extend(true, {}, MP.highcharts.barOptions, { legend: { enabled: false }, xAxis: { categories: [‘Jim Schultz, the Republican’,’Keith Ellison, Democratic-Farmer-Labor’,’Not sure’,’Would not vote’]}, yAxis: { title: { text: ‘%’} }, tooltip: { formatter: function(){ return ‘ ‘ + this.x + ‘‘ + ‘: ‘ + MP.formatters.number(this.y,0) +” + ‘%’; } }, series: [
{ name: ‘%’, data: [45,44,9,2], }
] })); [/raw]
My guess is that a lot more than 1551 people will vote so I don’t know if this poll means all that much. The fact is, because so few people respond to polls these days, the polling that someone does manage to complete is mostly about polling models, than how how actual election will turn out.
If it’s within the margin of error it’s NOT actually an edge, it’s virtually a tie.
Disapprove of Walz’s handling of thd pandemic? Minnesota has performed better than every surrounding state and every red state. People are unhappy about gas prices and inflation. Exactly how much does a Governor influence that? Crime? Compared to the party that covers up tax fraud by billionaires, price fixing by big companies and insurrectionist who injured 140 police officers? Now, that is a unique view of law and order – conservative white men are above the law and everyone better know their place.
Just wait until the ads come out showing the Floyd riots and Walz doing nothing then folks demanding to defund the police.
Just wait until the ads come out showing Scott Jensen speaking his mind.
Jensen wants to eliminate the state income tax and fund programs through ‘growth’. If you are collecting zero dollars from x people, you will also collect zero dollars from x +100 people. I imagine that Jensen will plant money trees over the warmer half of the state and harvest money for education and vital programs from that new source. Where did these non-thinkers come from?
So in race after race, the choice is between misguided and destructive progressives, Or self immolation of the freedom, rule of law, democracy, and ultimately our country by trumpites. Even if a GOP candidate is not insane, the vote party instead of reality, the choice is really no choice. We might survive unchecked
Progressives, but most assuredly are doomed if the trumpites are in charge.
The wisest course I see is a Big Mac and large fries with a dozen donuts for dessert 3X a day and hope for a Fred Sanford
Great memory – “This is the big one, Elizabeth.”
“The poll found a plurality, 44 percent, had never heard of [Jensen] at all.”
The race is on! Who can more quickly establish an image of Jensen in voters’ minds?
That he performs on par with a “generic Republican” means Jensen must develop a general elction image of being a moderate, ideas driven Republican. Whether he’s up to the task & can hide the extremism that won him the endorsement may be a challenge.
Moderate, ideas-driven Republicans are a dying political breed, and have been since the Tea Party began primarying them out with insane conservatives.
Rule of thumb is that any sitting politician with an approval number in the low 40s is in trouble.
Judging by the points raised for opinion, It seems to me that Walz should evaluate whether reiterating a commitment to abortion rights would help his campaign: more useful in metro than rural areas, I suspect.
In a statewide race there are a lot more voters in urban areas than there are in rural.
I agree with the commenter who states that Jensen is only doing this well because some voters are assuming he’s a generic Republican like Tim Pawlenty. He’s not. I see a very negative campaign ahead.
“I see a very negative campaign ahead.”
Here’s a question I’ve had for a long time: is it negative campaigning to state accurately what a candidate believes in or has advocated?
No, it’s not. But if you lie about what your opponent stands for or has supported in the past with no regard for the truth, then it is.
“And voters in the electorally crucial Twin Cities suburbs, outside the cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul, still favored Walz by a 39-38 margin.” This is a statewide race. A vote is a vote is a vote. A vote cast in Floodwood is the same as a vote cast in Shoreview. Of course many metro suburbs are strategically important with respect to state legislative races because they form part of a swing district, but it is utter nonsense to say that they have strategic importance in a statewide race.
It is state wide, but the suburbs have high voter turnout with more swing voters. Just think what Republicans could have done with a more moderate candidate. But again they shoot themselves in the foot.
When 8 out of 10 people think the country is on the wrong track, folks from the party in charge will suffer. Much like Frey, Walz was caught flat footed when peaceful protesters burned down our largest city. That alone is enough for a change!
Still very much the alarmist, I see. Minneapolis is still standing.
I think the country’s on the wrong track, but pollsters who ask that question never ask the second question: “In what way?”
I would say that it is on the wrong track because the Republicans have exchanged traditional conservative policies (even if I disagree with them, I can still follow the logic the proponents are using) for abject worship of the most recent former president and for glassy-eyed trust in media figures whose purpose is to keep their audiences in a state of unthinking rage and scornful of any media that do not agree with the party line.
Are the Democrats partly at fault? Certainly! They coast on their past achievements, use some of the same wealthy and corporate contributors as the Republicans, and have concentrated on social issues instead of on the economic issues that affect increasing numbers of Americans of all ethnic groups, ages, and genders. They respond to the Republicans instead of making and effectively promoting their own initiatives. Their PR people are so inept that I sometimes wonder if they’re Republican moles. They expect their base to give money and volunteer but do not respect their input or the input of the more proactive members of their party.
To sum it up, the Republicans have played hardball for the past forty years, and the Democrats have played Whiffleball.
Minneapolis is still standing I live here dude
Jensen strikes me as someone who the better you get to know them, the less you like them. Walz shouldn’t have a problem beating him.
Democrats win statewide elections in the suburbs. The move of outer ring suburbs to the Democratic Party is one of the most visible and important changes I have encountered in my umpteen years of grassroots politics. The question this year is will that trend continue, stall or reverse.
Republicans have not run a serious statewide campaign in many years. The are present in the cities and they show signs of melting away in the suburbs. For the first time in my memory, Republicans will not be contesting several suburban legislative seats. As someone whose political life tends to revolve around those seats, it surprises me that there will be so many uncontested races this year has gone largely unnoticed. In any event, will that change. For the next five months we will see a steady stream of Minneapolis on fire commercials. Will that move the electorate? We will just have to wait and see.
Hard to believe it is that close
I like to think that most of the bad news about the governor is out and he still holds a lead with people who respond to online polls which surely must count for something. We don’t know a lot about Dr. Jensen.
These days, politicians, especially Republican politicians do a curious thing. They campaign against voters. Basically, they talk about how evil people who live in the cities are. Every single one of them wants to burn down the police station. This plays very well with their base, but it also drives turnout among the voters they vilify.
For the consumer of retail politics, this can lead to a strange political environment. I often see commercials that I don’t just disagree with, but also make me want to vote for the other side, and even worse for them, makes me want to campaign for the other side.
Puzzled why it’s so close. Mr Walz is a moderate Democrat. He has managed the pandemic and other crisis in the state well without pandering.
I’m inclined to agree with John Edwards – hard to believe it’s that close. Jensen has already shown himself to be a right wing ideologue only slightly less loony than your favorite Proud Boy. Most of the complaints about Walz revolve around issues over which he has little or no control – much like the list of Republican complaints about Biden. Neither Democrat is perfect, but Walz has no control over crime (the reaction to George Floyd’s murder was a riot, stoked in part by out-of-state actors, and while Walz’s response was inept, and a genuine point against him, that riot has little to do with ongoing crime in the Twin Cities and elsewhere), no control over inflation, no control over gasoline prices.
Mr. Jensen will try to drag us back to the 19th century. Some will applaud if he’s successful. Most will suffer.
If Jensen succeeds in dragging us back to the 19th century, gas prices will become moot. We will need to focus on the cost of oats and hay to supply energy to our transportation engines – our horses.
Who gave the order that MinnPost can now begin to mention Joe Biden in a somewhat negative context?
It’s about time that Minnpost spoke negatively about Biden. With over 70% saying the country is going in the wrong direction. Biden’s approval rating in the low 40 %. Only 3 blind mice democrats support Biden
The poll shows that, as usual, the state Republicans blew it. Qualls would be ahead in the polls right now.
Scott who?
Walz has a record of accomplishment. Republicans do not want to give him credit for any of it. Jensen accomplished little in the legislature. He is making all kinds of claims and proposals, which one third of respondents know little about. The poll coukd have asked about specific things Walz and Jensen back, but was part of a large poll mixing national and local issues . Doing so dilutes the value of the local poll as Minnesota is doing far better than its neighbors or tgd country as a whole.
Why is MN Post still promoting a poll that was done six weeks ago? Do you really think that what Jensen and Birk have been spouting as well as Republican threats against any exceptions for abortion as well as contraception and gay marriage have had no effect? Pull references to this poll – it is sadly out of date.
After reading this article, I’ve still never heard of Scott Jensen before. Are we sure he’s not Jeff Johnson? Are the developers re-using old assets with a palette swap?
Before the 2016 election, when most of his federal government cohorts had decided the Presidential election was a done-deal and Clinton w0uld win (which she did, but the Electoral College decided another blow-against-democracy election) , a psychologist who worked with that group disagreed. “Half of every population is below average intelligence and half of every population has a below-average education and they are all voting for Trump.” Trump’s love for “the uneducated” proved to be key and we were plunged into another Republican economic and social mess that the country has yet to recover from and, many believe was the fatal blow to the “American Experiment” with faux-democracy. The fact that someone like Scott Jensen–who is a climate denier, a science cynic, anti-democratic, and authoritarian–is even considered anything other than a laughable candidate demonstrates how much closer our state population is to that low median than our state image projects.
Why is an early June 2022 poll being reviewed in a publication from late October 2022?
Is it relevant? Is its purpose to confuse voters over the relative polling situation of the two candidates just before the election?