If the United States scuttles the Lausanne framework agreement containing Iran’s nuclear program by claiming we simply want to make it better, our negotiating partners will see not strength of principle. They will see a country that does not understand what international negotiations and multilateral agreements mean, a country that rejects the work of its allies and the reality of its competitors.
The senators who sent that letter to Tehran, “educating” Iranians on American constitutional law, actually educated the world on American egotism, and our ignorance of the way the rest of the world addresses complex challenges. We need to remember what it means to negotiate if we are to retain our leading position in the decades to come. And that means concluding this historically important framework agreement with Iran.
Certainly people of good will can have different perspectives on specific parts of the Lausanne agreement. But that’s the case for any product of complex negotiations – especially multilateral ones. That is, after all, why we call these things “negotiations” – no one gets everything they want. When the United States negotiated strategic arms treaties, or the Camp David or Dayton Accords, could their terms have been better – or different, anyway? Perhaps, but one negotiates for the best one can get, not the perfect one cannot attain. Otherwise we would call such agreements ultimatums – terms imposed by force, against the will of the other side.
The heart of the criticisms
And here, I suggest, is the heart of the criticisms of the Lausanne framework. The bulk of the critics reject the product of these complex, seven-party negotiations, because – well, because they don’t think the United States negotiates. We dictate. If the agreement isn’t exactly what we – only one of the six parties on our side – want, then we have lost, and the agreement is awful. We are exceptional. We are poweful. We can dominate the world, and global dominators don’t discuss, they tell.
There was a day when that was close to true. While we downplay the war in Vietnam, our failures of action in Somalia and inaction in Rwanda, or the chaos we have created in Iraq, there is no doubt that in the 20th century we were able to do pretty much whatever we wanted offensively with our military power. The problem has become that that strength has led to the near disappearance of the other forms of national strength. The military uses the acronym DIME – diplomatic, intelligence, military, and economic – to summarize national power. We’re great, indeed spectacular, at the military part, but when it comes to addressing complex issues, the other three matter as well. And not every problem has a military solution, as even many of Israel’s retired generals and intelligence chiefs have said about the Iranian nuclear program. It time for us to leave behind the thought that we don’t have to negotiate solutions to global problems, including the one before us now.
Some will respond that there are reasonable criticisms of the agreement, that it can still be changed, that we can get more concessions. But that message is really “we didn’t get what we (or at least some of us) want, and we should.” That’s an ultimatum, not a negotiation. And the United States now lives in a world where our power to dictate has changed. Post-Cold War, we have moved into a world of friendly enemies and difficult friends, and success today requires of us a different skill set than we built in the 20th century.
It’s a new world
Now we certainly remain the only global superpower, and we can do whatever we think we must do to protect our nation. But in cases short of existential threats – and the Iran nuclear program is not such a threat — we live in a new world.
In 1950 we produced half the world’s goods and services, giving us great influence, and throughout the Cold War we had the crisp moral dividing line of the Iron Curtain. As late as the 1991 Gulf War we could marshal 39 countries to join us in the fight, and get them to pay 90 percent of the cost of that war. But since 2001 we have fought in Afghanistan and Iraq almost alone, and mostly at our own expense, and we find ourselves with no good exit strategy. Meanwhile, the U.S.-led sanctions regime on Iran has gotten us this far only thanks to cooperation from our allies, and even our competitors Russia and China. We need to remember that, and get this agreement finalized and implemented.
Bill Davnie of Minneapolis served 27 years as a U.S. Foreign Service Officer prior to retiring to Minnesota, including service in Iraq and Tajikistan, and travel in the Middle East.
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Yes
This. Thank you. Our big stick (which ain’t as big as it used to be) is only a backup for our soft words, not the other way around. Not only was the letter from the senators horribly uninformed, cocky, and colossally stupid, it bordered on treasonous for intentionally scuttling peaceful negotiations (or, at least trying to). Claims that we should, let alone can, force Iran into a deal that is ideal for the US (Israel) and 100% bad for Iran are naive, at best, and poisonous, at worst. Last time I checked, the US wasn’t the only first world country with some level of power, and it would appear that several others are part of the negotiations. And, even if we WERE the only superpower in on the negotiation, we’re not dealing with a petulant child that simply needs to learn its manners, it’s an entire country that might just represent an entire region of the world, in their hearts, anyway.
What many people who are so vehemently against the current “deal” fail to mention is what happens when we put their best deal in front of Iran and Iran refuses. Rightly or wrongly, Iran will refuse a “deal” in which we get everything we want and they get nothing they want. Based on the rhetoric of the right, and egged on by Netanyahu, it wouldn’t be just walking away. While the Middle East has (somewhat) tolerated our hard sanctions, I doubt that any ME country will take an invasion sitting down after we royally effed up its neighbor. Especially knowing that the motivation would be almost entirely about Israel. How many countries can we bomb before Saudi Arabia stops being our “ally?”
It has amazed me that throughout the negotiation that there has been absolutely no recognition on the part of most people bloviating on the issue of the fact that Israel’s nuclear capacity is the driving force for the Iranian impetus to obtain nuclear weapons.
Let’s all pretend that all this has nothing to do with the attempted re-alignment of power in the region.
Let’s pretend that the Iranians are unhinged in their drive for parity.
The author’s point of view is that people do not like this agreement because America didn’t get everything it wanted and that is how it should be. This is totally incorrect. First, it wasn’t America but the UNSC that demanded in several resolutions that Iran stops it nuclear program completely. And second, the main criticism is that this agreement will allow Iran to have its nukes sooner or later and that is a big deal. Why do people distort their opponents’ point of view?
Ms. Kahler, everyone is saying that Iran got to these negotiations because sanctions forced it to; therefore, the most important thing for Iran must be sanctions relief which it was supposed to get in exchange for giving up nuclear program as the UN resolutions required. So presumably, it would have gotten what it wanted and the world would have gotten what it wanted – what’s unfair in this deal? And I hate to break up you bubble, but all Gulf countries would be happy if America bombed Iran.
Mr. Rovick, it seems that you have some obsession with Israel since you bring it up any time you can whether it is relevant or not. No, Iran is not building nukes because Israel has it, the same as Saudis were not building them because of Israel but will be because of Iran.
Confidence
I’m sorry that my “bubble” has not broken based on claims that “everybody” is saying something and “all Gulf countries” want something. Just because you’re overly confident in your opinion doesn’t make it true. Feel free to provide an argument that is supported by facts. In the meanwhile, I’m going to to give Mr. Davnie’s opinion a lot more weight given his experience.
Thank you Bill
Good balanced Article.
Here it is
Ms. Kahler, here it is: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/nov/28/us-embassy-cables-saudis-iran.