WASHINGTON – A Republican takeover of the U.S. House, which most analysts say is likely, would dramatically shift the balance of power in Washington – and upend the roles of Minnesota’s members of Congress.
The state’s delegation to the House is now evenly split. Four Republicans and four Democrats represent Minnesota’s diverse rural, urban and suburban residents. But most of those Democrats – with the exception of Rep. Betty McCollum, D-4th – have been in the majority since they took office.
Meanwhile, most of Republicans, except Rep. Tom Emmer, R-6th District, have only served in the minority.
That could all be about to change.
If voters on Nov. 8 return all incumbents to Washington, and that’s not guaranteed, they would return to very different jobs under a GOP-led House.
Like many who study American politics, University of Minnesota Morris political science professor Tim Lindberg expects the Republican Party to win at least the five additional seats it needs to take control of the House.
“There’s a very good probability of that,” he said.
Predictions over how many new seats Republicans could win has vacillated, from about 50 to just a dozen or fewer as President Joe Biden’s popularity and Democratic prospects rose during the summer. But the party that controls the White House traditionally loses seats in midterm elections and more House Democrats than House Republicans are facing competitive races for reelection come November.
The lawmaker with the most to lose in a GOP takeover of the House is McCollum, who rose through the seniority system to chair of the House Appropriations Committee’s panel on defense. She would remain the highest-ranking Democrat on the panel, but no longer hold the gavel and determine what military issues deserve priority. Among other things, this could influence how the United States continues its military support of Ukraine.
Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-5th, would also experience change. She, and a small group of House progressives, have been influential because House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., could not afford to lose their votes to win approval of key bills that were opposed by Republicans.
Lindberg said Omar and other “Squad” members could be “marginalized” if House Democrats are in the minority.
“Do they become the (Rep.) Marjorie Taylor-Greenes of the left?” Lindberg wondered, a reference to a Georgia congresswoman and far right conspiracy theorist who is at the fringes of the House GOP caucus.
In fact, the political careers of all Minnesota Democratic members of Congress would be paused in a GOP takeover of the House. They will find it very hard to move forward with their legislative priorities, and even be less able to bring home money for fewer “earmarks,” or local projects.
Rep. Angie Craig, D-2nd, for instance, is in line to chair an agriculture subcommittee with oversight of commodities and farm credit programs. If she wins her race against Republican Tyler Kistner and the House flips, Craig would have to be satisfied with being the top Democrat on the panel.
Meanwhile, of all of Minnesota’s lawmakers, Emmer seems to have the most to gain.
As head of the National Republican Congressional Committee, Emmer would be credited with the GOP’s takeover of the House, and that would boost his chances of winning a leadership position.
Emmer is interested in the No. 3 job in the House, if it’s under Republican control in the next Congress. Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., is expected to win his bid to be the new Speaker of the House, Rep. Steve Scalise, R-La., is likely to be the new Majority Leader. Scalise is now whip, the job Emmer wants. The whip counts votes, and cajoles and sometimes twists arms to get them.
But Emmer is in a very competitive three-way race for that position. Rep. Jim Banks, R-Ind., and Rep. Drew Ferguson, R-Ga., an ally of Scalise, are also vying for the job.
“I think he’s in a privileged position and he’s running a good race,” said Rep. Patrick McHenry, R-N.C., who had considered running for the whip job himself, but is now helping Emmer drum up support.
The leadership election will be held shortly after Nov. 8 general elections. All House Republicans who will serve in the next Congress, including the newly elected who won’t have been sworn in officially yet, will cast their ballots behind closed doors. Emmer helped many of those new members win their seats.
But it is Rep. Michelle Fischbach, R-7th, whose job may undergo the most change.
House Republicans say they will use their new control over congressional committees to launch a series of investigations into Biden, his son Hunter Biden, and a number of other issues, including military support for Ukraine and the FBI’s raid of Mar-a-Lago, which is former President Donald Trump’s Florida home, to seize White House documents.
As a member of the House Judiciary Committee and a loyal Trump supporter, Fischbach would be involved in many of those probes. She could also be tapped to serve on specially formed committees – like the one empaneled to investigate the Jan. 6 storming of the U.S. Capitol by Trump supporters intent on stopping Congress from certifying the results of the 2020 election.
“The Republicans will flip the switch at what is being looked at now,” Lindberg predicted. And Fischbach’s loyalty to “the current priorities of the party” will be rewarded, he said.
More gridlock expected
Rep. Pete Stauber, R-8th District, said a change from Pelosi to McCarthy as to who’s in control of the House’s agenda would allow him to vote on “real solutions to the problems Minnesotans are battling,” including “high inflation, unaffordable energy costs, and out of control crime.”
But new House Republican leaders would face the same frustrations as its current Democratic leaders, namely the Senate.
The Senate, now controlled by Democrats, could flip, too. Or Democrats could pick up one or two seats. It’s hard to tell because of the number of toss-up Senate races.
But neither party is expected to win enough seats, at least 60, needed to overcome the filibuster. So GOP House leaders would soon find out, like their Democratic predecessors, that the Senate is the place where their bills usually die.
Still, House Republicans are eager for a chance to lead and be able to kick start their stalled careers in Congress.
Stauber said “if he were blessed with another term and should Republicans win the House,” he would become chairman of a Natural Resources Energy and Minerals subcommittee.
“This committee has jurisdiction over resource development on federal lands, including for minerals, and is very important to my district,” he said. “I look forward utilizing this position to push for serious permitting reform to help America achieve energy and mineral dominance, and to help promote Minnesota’s mineral wealth which will lead to further jobs and prosperity on the Iron Range.”
While Stauber may be able to bring attention to mining issues by holding hearings and pushing legislation through the Natural Resources Committee, he would also face the hurdle imposed by the Senate filibuster.
Many analysts are predicting Congress’ gridlock will get even worse in the new Congress, which will be gaveled in in early January. Some voters are concerned, too.
In an Axios-Ipsos poll released Saturday, 53% of respondents said they were concerned about the potential for divided government and gridlock after November’s election. The poll defined divided government as divided control of Congress — with one party holding the House and another holding the Senate.
Voter concern about partisan feuding in Congress may help moderates of both parties, including Rep. Dean Phillips, D-3rd, if those centrists can broker deals in a very toxic political environment.
Even if his party is in the minority next year, Phillips, if reelected, plans to run for the co-chair of the Democratic Policy and Communications Committee, the messaging arm of the House Democratic Caucus.
At least this article is about this election, in contrast to those about 2024, but why talk about possibilities rather than how things look one month out. That is fact based reporting, which should be the expectation.
Minnesota voters, this election is about democracy. Republicans claim that despite being rejected by voters by a large margin, Donald Trump should still be President. In other words, they reject the will of the people. There are three MN Republican House members wrapping up two year terms. All three rejected the election results. With that vote, all dishonored their oath to uphold the Constitution. We cannot control whether other states prefer a dictator, but that is not Minnesota nice.
Emmer is an election denier who initially was going to vote against confirming Biden’s win until the Jan 6 violent repub attempted coup which he and other repubs refuse to investigate.
This politician has no democracy values and it’s disturbing why we don’t see the media criticize these politicians with continued outrage.
He is one of six repubs in MN running for federal political office who is an election denier.
Why are we not seeing continual outrage against these anti democracy politicians?
Does not our democracy have value?
Actually, Emmer is an election liar, not a denier. Let’s start calling a spade a spade.
It’ll be all about The Revenge, baby — and trying to impeach people but forgetting why, and living under the thumb of America’s arguably most amoral person, Kevin McCarthy. What could go wrong?
“House Republicans say they will use their new control over congressional committees to launch a series of investigations into Biden, his son Hunter Biden, and a number of other issues, including military support for Ukraine and the FBI’s raid of Mar-a-Lago, which is former President Donald Trump’s Florida home, to seize White House documents.”
Which of these issues will have the most impact on how Minnesotans live their daily lives?
Republicans also have a legislative agenda, which you can look up. It includes raising taxes somewhat on the majority of Minnesotans while cutting taxes dramatically for the rich. It will also defund the tax police (the IRS) in order to facilitate tax cheating by the affluent.
They expect to move ahead on their long-term goals of cutting and privatizing Social Security and Medicare. So, if your’e retired you can expect your costs to go up and your income down.
They hope to eliminate Medicaid altogether as well. Medicaid is the major source of funding for Minnesota’s nursing homes. This raises some pretty urgent questions.
The Republican legislative agenda is sweeping and quite radical, which is why it’s annoying to see the press treat Republican representatives as if they were safe, familiar status quo politicians.
Why should Emmer be given an iota of credit if the GOP, aka the Party of Q, attains the majority? The party of power always has the wind at it’s back, they only have to gain a handful of seats, and they’ve further gerrymandered their minority coalition into a faux majority.
Love him or hate him, all he has to do is avoid getting caught in bed with a dead woman or a live boy, as the old political saying goes.
I think Herschel Walker rebuts your last sentence.
I have read in this article that one of Minnesota’s congress people is going to become powerful if his party wins a majority in the mid terms. What I want to know is power to do what?
I have always been a political junky. I read political novels like “Advise and Consent” and “The Last Hurrah”. My favorite book on politics is “Plunkitt of Tammany Hall” which is in the public domain and can be downloaded for free or a nominal price. These books were often about power, but what power meant was the ability to have an impact on a community. What does the power available in modern Washington have to do with making the lives of constituents better? Will the leadership position a congressman assumes mean his district will get more money? More pork? When a guy is the third ranking member of the majority party in the house, will every town in his district have a park and will every such park have a swimming pool? I would like to know, and I would like the congressman to give us the opportunity to ask him, at least during the election campaign. But they aren’t asked that question, and no answers are otherwise available. Rather we assume the worst, that we send people to Washington, pay them a huge salary, and then don’t really hear from them again until next election.
Interesting question.
Let the wailing and gnashing of teeth begin. The hand wringing has begun.
Hey, Hey, Hey:
MINNPOST, are you not tracking the loyal right side commentariat here? As a member of the biased, left wing media complex, you are not allowed to publish articles reflecting favorably on right side policies or prospects?
What’s next? Going to tell us the Range is turning red?
As may happen to the rest of the “Squad,” for having the temerity to be women who disagree with the Republican agenda.
Which is a total crock. Rep. Omar’s statements were roundly condemned and have not been repeated since. Whether she is genuinely contrite or merely learned her lesson is another matter, but it is something that continues to be brought up by those who resent her presence in the House of Representatives, if not the United States generally.
There is no comparison between her and Rep. Greene, despite the hallowed “both sides are equally to blame” rule.
Got it. Democrats should choose candidates based entirely on whether Republicans will say mean things about them.
A newly sworn in Repub House can launch all the bad faith and baseless “probes” they want; hopefully the Biden Admin will give them the same level of cooperation that the Trumpolini Admin gave to the Dem House from 2018-20: zero. Not a single document. No answers to any pretextual “inquiries”. We aren’t going to have a situation where Repub presidents are immune from Congressional oversight, but Dem presidents are subject to oversight. That’s patently unfair.
Congressional Repubs backed Trump’s wholesale refusal to permit oversight into his multitudinous scandals, lawbreaking and misrule; they ended the longstanding constitutional regime of Congressional oversight over the executive branch, now they have to live with the new governing structure they intentionally created. Let them fulminate from their chairmanships, they don’t actually care about government anyway.
I have no problem nonstop investigations of Hunter’s laptop. It is payback, I suppose, for investigating the events of January 6th. But I don’t see a scenario where knowing all there is to know about a laptop makes the lives of Minnesotans better. I don’t know how becoming the third ranking member of one’s party leadership in Congress makes our lives better, but if there are reasons why it does, I am willing to listen.
January 6 was an existential threat to the American Republic. Hunter Biden’s laptop is an embarrassment to the sitting President, not to mention a distraction.
Actually it will be payback for 4 years of Russiagate. The HIllary/Adam Schiff circus that went nowhere.
Payback is such a healthy way of running a democratically structured republic.
Well, it’s true that Trump didn’t get impeached over the scandal as a result of courtier Barr’s masterful job of bamboozling the corporate media before they read the report, and the lockstep support of the indefensible by the Repub party. But the facts of the incontrovertible interference by Russia in the 2016 election to aid Trump are now part of the historical record, as demonstrated by both Mueller and the Senate Intelligence Committee.
It sounds like you need to inform yourself about what’s actually in those reports, and certainly beyond the descriptions blatted by the Rightwing Noise Machine!
Okay, here is the deal. Becoming a house republican leader isn’t about making the lives of Minnesotans better. It’s about assuming control or at least influence over vast amounts of money. Legislative leaders ar e given control of millions or even billions of dollars which they can use to reward their friends and punish their adversaries. Legislative leaders also know with certainty without ever being told that when they leave office assuming they behave, or that any misbehavior is the sort that is acceptable, that they will receive wealth beyond the dreams of avarice, not a single penny of which, they will have to share with their constituents who entrusted them with the jobs that made that wealth possible.